Scientists have predicted the exact date they think the UK, and other countries around the world, will be free of coronavirus.
The Singapore University of Technology and Design has created a mathematical model which predicts future infections of Covid-19 using data from current confirmed cases and deaths.
The model – based on a ‘predictive-monitoring’ technique – inputs cases and deaths worldwide and visualises the data in a bar chart. A bell-shaped curve over the top displays the projected trajectory of the disease, including peak, acceleration and deceleration.
As of predictions on April 30, the UK is predicted to be coronavirus-free by August 27, Singapore is earlier at June 28, and the US is later at September 20.
The model predicted a 100% end to the pandemic on a worldwide scale around December 4.
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Scientists making the predictions however have stressed that predictions are open to change and the dates are not definite.
The team said the model is ‘inaccurate to the complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of different countries’ and that ‘predictions are uncertain by nature’.
This is due to a number of factors, including the strengthening of restrictions in some places and the relaxing of measures in others, people not adhering to the measures or protests against lockdown.
The report added: ‘Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.’
It comes as experts predicted the UK could be recording zero deaths from coronavirus from June, and there were no new cases recorded in London on Monday.
Professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, Carl Heneghan, predicts there will be a sporadic rise and fall in deaths over the next four to six weeks but does not expect to find coronavirus listed in the ONS death data by the end of June.
Speaking at a briefing this week he said: ‘I think by the end of June we’ll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.
‘But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks.’
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