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An energy chief has warned that while Europe had been let “off the hook” this winter, the continent could be in a deeper crisis in a matter of months. This is due to China’s demand which is set to soar, according to Dr Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency. The head of the intergovernmental organisation that provides data, analysis, and policy recommendations, warned that it was only due to sheer luck that Europe did not face gas shortages this winter. Over the past year, the continent has been grappling with a fossil fuel energy crisis, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent wholesale gas prices skyrocketing.
Despite fears of energy shortages and blackouts this winter over a lack of gas supplies, Europe was able to survive the winter. However, Dr Birol warned the continent against complacency, noting that there could easily be shortages next winter.
He noted that Chinese demand would be one of the main reasons for this shortage, as the country ended its stringent COVID restrictions last December following an unprecedented wave of protests against the country’s lockdowns.
Although Beijing was able to keep Covid cases and deaths low, the heavy restrictions severely battered the world’s second-largest economy.
Thus as the country reopens, its economic activity is set to soar, which would mean an increased demand for natural gas supplies, similar to the post-pandemic recovery boom seen by many other countries after they lifted their restrictions over a year ago.
Dr Birol noted that while an extra 23 billion cubic metres (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to be produced this year, China could take 80 percent of it, Sky News reports.
He said: “Even though we have enough LNG import terminals, there may not be enough gas to import and therefore it will not be easy this coming winter for Europe.
This could lead to prices soaring again this winter, just as they did in the months prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when European countries ended their lockdown restrictions and demand soared.
The crisis for the continent got even worse by February 25 last year, when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to invade Ukraine.
Europe was particularly impacted by the war, as it was heavily dependent on Moscow for its gas exports. Meanwhile, Russia began exploiting this vulnerability by manipulating gas supplies flowing into the continent to exert pressure on the fuel-starved European Union.
Dr Birol, who has been named in TIME’s annual list of the world’s 100 most influential people said: “It is not right to be relaxed, it is not right now to celebrate.”
The expert also questioned countries like Germany that have decided to phase out nuclear energy, asking them to consider whether it was the right time to do so.
Late last year, the German Parliament voted to keep its three remaining nuclear plants open as it scrambles to break free from Putin’s tight grip on European energy supplies.
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Meanwhile, Dr Birol noted that this winter, governments in Europe had made many correct decisions to ensure adequate energy supplies.
These measures include building more LNG terminals to replace Russian gas pipelines, shoring up gas stocks for the winter, and even reducing energy consumption.
However he noted that Europe got lucky, as a mild winter reduced the demand for gas heating, while an economic slowdown in China led to the first drop in consumption in the country in four decades.
He said: “For this winter it is right to say that we are off the hook. If there are no last-minute surprises, we should get through…maybe with some bruises here and there. But the question is, what happens next winter?”
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