Russia: Reaction 'stronger than Putin expected' says Ricketts
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It comes a Russian invasion of Ukraine looks to be coming nearer, with reports 100,000 have piled up at the Russia-Ukraine border. And if the Kremlin does decide to launch an attack, Europe’s gas could get slashed, or even cut. Ukraine is a key transit route that brings Russia’s gas to the EU, and it supplies the bloc with a third of its gas. And Russia’s grip on European energy security has already been laid bare over the last few months.
Moscow has been accused of deliberately withholding gas deliveries from the bloc, which are supposed to travel through its vast network of pipelines, hiking up prices to record highs in October.
But that record was surpassed in December, when Russia diverted gas flow to the East through the Yamal-Europe pipeline.
This diversion, which has been ongoing for over 30 days, still shows no sign of stopping.
And now Brandon Weichert, founder of The Weichert Report: An Online Journal of Geopolitics, has warned that it could get a lot worse for the bloc.
Mr Weichert told Express.co.uk: “Russia is already reversing natural gas flows out of Europe.
“They are doing it at a snail’s pace as part of their larger negotiation strategy with the West.
“Yet, should Moscow believe negotiations will yield nothing (thus far, they are not very promising for either side), the damage done to Europe would be severe.”
The US has not been shy to pile the pressure on the Kremlin as it scrambles to discourage an invasion.
With reports that Joe Biden is prepared to deploy up to 50,000 troops, it seems like Washington is ready for the worst.
But the US’ own gas supply is far removed from Mr Putin’s grip, and so it is Europe that should be more concerned, according to Mr Weichert.
He explained: “Germany, France, and now Italy are attempting to take matters into their own hands and negotiate directly with the Russians and cut the Americans out.
“After all, America has its own sizable energy reserves and is far removed from the European continent.
“In the dead of winter, should Moscow complete the reversal of natural gas flows that it has started, not only would Europeans be left freezing in the dark, but the economies of Europe would seize up and the already-strained European order would crash.”
If this happens, Mr Weichert fears things may get out of hand.
He warned: “Tensions would explode under these conditions and it is possible that Russia might think they need to next threaten nuclear war.”
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This also comes after Russian analyst Andrei Ostalski suggested Russia might be poised to trigger a ”‘nuclear Armageddon”.
He told BBC News: “I think it’s kind of a bluff that they found Russian deputies and political commentators openly discussing now that if push comes to shove then Mr Putin will be prepared even to bring the world through the brink of nuclear armageddon.”
But currently, it appears the most likely scenario would be a move to slash Europe’s gas supplies, as Mr Putin has previously shown that he is willing to do.
In October, for example, Moldova (right on the EU’s doorstep) declared a state of emergency when Moscow cut off its gas after a long-term contract ran out.
Mr Biden, who is aware that the Russia conflict threatens gas supplies, is drafting up measures to ease an energy crisis in Europe.
Washington has called for an increased production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) around the world.
It would mean Europe could fall back on increased supplies coming from companies in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, should Russia cut off the gas.
Amos Hochstein, Senior Adviser for Energy Security, has reportedly been drafting up a global strategy for contingency options to boost Europe’s supplies, which are reportedly at an “advanced stage”.
A senior administration official said earlier this month: “We are well aware of the potential impact of a reduction of Russian energy supply, both in Europe’s market and globally, and we are working very hard to identify and manage those risks with a range of contingency options.”
And Russia might also want to consider the huge profits it could lose by cutting off Europe’s gas.
Jaime Concha of Energy Intelligence predicts that a complete cut-off of Europe’s pipeline gas would cost Gazprom between $203million (£150.73million) and $228million (£169.30million) a day in lost revenues.
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