Putin to launch ‘desperate effort’ warns expert
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A Russian attack on critical submarine cables that span the entire globe could “divide and isolate” the West, an expert has told Express.co.uk. It comes as several were damaged this week in a suspicious unfolding of events. This week, SHEFA-2 submarine cable between Shetland and Orkney off the Scottish coast was cut in a “major incident” on the Shetland Isles which left residents without basic access to their mobiles and internet. On the very same day, a major cable in the south of France was reportedly severed, sparking internet issues for citizens across Europe, Asia and the US.
Russia’s Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were also described as “sabotaged” in blasts which caused gas to leak out into the Baltic Sea earlier this month. While there is no solid evidence, Western officials have blamed the attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This attack may have been on a gas pipeline, but it also raised fears that the vast network of subsea internet cables spanning across the world’s oceans could also be targeted. These are pivotal for global communications, accounting for around 95 percent of all transatlantic data traffic, according to the International Cable Protection Committee.
Brandon Weichert, a geopolitical analyst and former Congressional staff member, told Express.co.uk such an attack threatens to “divide and isolate the West so badly”, and that Russia may be plotting to limit the West’s ability to recover from such an event.
He explained: “A major escalation is afoot as Putin prepares his next round of brutality against the Ukrainians. Interestingly, this event and the overall increased threat to undersea cables, occurs at the time when Russia’s space forces are launching classified military satellites from Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
“As I’ve warned about to various US government audiences for the last several years: we are ripe for a Space Pearl Harbor. The satellites being launched by Russia into high Earth orbit might not be simple communications or surveillance satellites.
“Instead, they could very well be co-orbital satellites designed to destroy sensitive US military communications, nuclear command and control, and surveillance satellites. “
NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has said that undersea cables are vital not just for civilian society purposes, but also “for different military capabilities”. But most Western military can reportedly turn to backup satellite communications if these undersea cables become compromised.
Mr Weichert appears to believe that Russia may be gearing up to take out the West’s last line of defence.
He said: “Such a move by Russia against America’s vital-yet-vulnerable satellites coupled with a massive attack by Russia on undersea cables could divide and isolate the West so badly that support for Ukraine can no longer be provided.
“And then, with those extra Russian and Belarusian troops Putin has called up, Moscow’s forces just might be able to (they think) win in Ukraine and force a negotiated settlement with the West. Whether the West just accepts this reality is another question, but we are definitely entering a very dark period.”
However, while such a high number of cables, both those carrying internet and gas, were affected within such a small period of time, authorities in the area suspect that the cable incident on the Shetland Isles was accidentally caused by a fishing vessel.
But the severed line in Marseille, which was damaged in three places, has been called an “act of vandalism” by the head of cloud security company Zscaler Trust, although clear evidence to suggest that this was the case has yet to surface, also with no proof that Russia was the perpetrator.
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Jay Chaudhry wrote on Linkedin: “This fibre cut was an act of vandalism and impacted at least three cable systems. Sitting between applications and end users with the ability to steer traffic between our data centres to influence network paths is more than just about security.”
Meanwhile, the West is not unaware of the threat reportedly posed by Putin, which has developed a renewed sense of urgency following the “sabotage” of Nord Stream 1 and 2.
Keir Giles,an expert in Russian information warfare at Chatham House, told Politico: “It’s been a target in conflicts for more than a decade now. If there is not close attention to securing these vital assets, Western countries have only themselves to blame.”
Mr Weichert agrees, and has warned that the West is still “woefully unprepared’ to defence against such an attack. He warned: “The longer the Russia-Ukraine war drags on and the more battlefield defeats Putin’s forces endure, the more Putin will lash out and seek to reorder events in his favour by using any and all drastic measures. Attacking undersea cables is an obvious way for him to achieve this extreme goal.”
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