SpaceX Starship launch: Elon Musk only gives SN10 60% chance of acing first test flight

SpaceX Starship explodes whilst attempting to land during test

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SpaceX will attempt to launch and land the Starship prototype in South Texas after already blowing up two test models. In December last year, the Starship Serial Number 8 (SN8) was blown to smithereens when it crashed into the launch pad at the company’s Boca Chica facility. The SN9 shared the previous iteration’s fiery fate a month later when its three Raptor engines failed to slow it down enough for a soft landing.

SpaceX fans are now hopeful SN10 will ace both stages of its first flight – launch and landing – even if SpaceX chief Elon Musk does not quite share their enthusiasm.

One person tweeted: “The question is will SN10 land with safety margins or will it just land within an inch of its life.”

Another person said: “He should launch SN10 and 11 at the same time, at least one would have to land! It’s science.”

A third fan suggested SpaceX has collected enough data from the SN9 crash to avoid any mishaps with the SN10.

Mr Musk, however, has given the Starship prototype nearly even odds of acing the landing.

He tweeted: “Sucess on landing probability is ~60 percent this time.”

And this is not the first time the South African billionaire has given his spacecraft -less-than-favourable odds of survival.

A day before the SN8 took the skies on December 9, Mr Musk said there was a two-in-three chance the flight could fail.

He tweeted: “Lot of things need to go right, so maybe one-in-three chance.”

SpaceX’s test flight will see the Starship prototype launch to an altitude of at least 6.2 miles (10km).

The rocket will be powered by its Three Raptor engines although, in the future, Starship will launch from Earth on top of the Super Heavy booster rocket.

Once the spacecraft reaches its intended altitude, Starship will tip over to its side and fall to the ground belly-side down.

Doing so will allow Starship to break aerodynamically and bleed some speed without firing its engines.

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SpaceX Starship explodes on landing during a test

SpaceX believes this is the most optimal way to land the rocket on worlds like Mars, where airstrips and landing pads are a non-existent commodity.

As Starship falls towards the ground, it will be guided by four fins mounted on its side – much like skydivers use their arms to guide their descent.

Then, just before Starship hits the ground, the rocket will flip upright again and fire its engines for a controlled landing.

So far, SpaceX has failed to ace this final step but judging by the success of the Falcon 9 – the world’s first reusable rocket – the company will eventually get there.

SpaceX said: “These test flights are all about improving our understanding and development of a fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo on long-duration, interplanetary flights and help humanity return to the Moon, and travel to Mars and beyond.”

Mr Musk has also been candid about the Starship prototypes being totally expendable.

The South African billionaire appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast where he said it would be unusual for the rockets not to explode.

He said: “It’s weird if it doesn’t explode, frankly, because we’re trying to develop advanced rockets at a high speed.”

Mr Musk added Starship is expected to make it to orbit before the year is over.

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