Boris Johnson: COP26 a ‘decisive shift’ in climate change battle
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COP26 was viewed as a significant step forward to help tackle climate change. Under the Paris Agreement, countries pledged to aim towards “holding warming well below 2C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5C.” However, estimates from Climate Action Tracker (CAT) suggest they still fall short of lowering global temperatures enough by 2100.
The aim of 1.5C is now viewed by experts as the safe upper-limit for global warming, where the impacts felt globally from climate change are much more bearable.
Existing policies and actions though mean we are on course to see global warming far exceed that target.
It’s estimated that global warming is currently at an increase of 1.2C, compared with pre-industrial averages.
But the latest analysis from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent scientific analysis that has provided its findings to policy makers since 2009, suggests this is not achievable under current proposals.
Following on from the global pledges and targets announced at COP26, CAT has released its own projections for how much global mean temperature could increase, based on different scenarios, by 2100.
Express.co.uk brings you a full guide explaining what CAT’s predictions are and how the UK could be affected.
Current policies and action
This is based on ‘real world action’ that we are likely to see play out if current policies are kept.
CAT foresees global temperature increasing by 2.7C higher than the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5C.
Ultimately, this is the worst-case scenario and could see global warming reach as high as 3.6C.
Were this to happen the consequences would be catastrophic for every country in the world.
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2030 NDC targets only
Naturally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are where countries set targets for mitigating the greenhouse gas emissions that fuel climate change.
NDCs were created during the Paris Agreement, in 2015, and require each country signed to the document to update their NDC every five years.
CAT projects that even full implementation of all 2030 NDC targets would only lower global temperatures from increasing by 0.3C, in 2100, compared with current policies and action.
Pledges and targets
The addition of the complete implementation of submitted and binding long-term targets and NDC goals – including those set at COP26 – would improve the situation slightly, but only just.
CAT predicts that global temperature would still increase by 2.1C over the 1.5C target.
Optimistic Scenario
The best-case scenario would be where all announced goals, including net-zero targets, long-term strategies and NDCs are fully implemented.
However, according to CAT this would still lead to global temperature increasing by 1.8C.
The lower estimates would only just reach the 1.5C Paris Agreement target.
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