Ukraine: Russian offensive will likely 'intensify' says expert
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Kyiv plans to join the EU’s Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) in 2023. The move would see Ukraine’s current electricity transmission system decoupled from Russia and Belarus. While the ENTSO-E system refers to electricity, the move looks likely to slash some of the energy dependency Ukraine submits to its neighbours.
It comes as Russia wreaks havoc in Ukraine by mounting a “full-scale invasion”, which has prompted fears gas supplies to Europe could get cut.
Belarus, a close ally of Russia, supplies almost 50 percent of Ukraine’s gas.
And while it has not imported gas directly from Russia since 2015, Ukraine purchases Russian gas which transits through Ukraine on its way to Europe from Western traders.
Danil Bochkov, from the Russian International Affairs Council, told Express.co.uk the ENTS-O agreement could “contribute to more geopolitical freedom for Kyiv which would become less dependent on energy supplies from Russia”.
But he warned the move will not do anything to slash Ukraine’s dependence on Russian gas.
Mr Bochkov told Express.co.uk: ”It helps little to decrease Ukrainian dependence on Russian gas, because with rising demand in the EU and a lack of gas reserves – it would be impossible to provide Ukraine with enough energy to make it non-reliant on Russian supplies.
“After the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 project, such minor issues as Ukraine switching from the Russian grid to the EU one should not worry Putin a lot.
“He understands that huge demand for gas and skyrocketing prices with a very slow transition to green energy makes Russia assured of energy leverage of the EU.”
Nord Stream 2 was set to transit gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine and Poland on the route.
But the German Chancellor pledged not to certify to project in a move to sanction Vladimir Putin over his military aggression towards Ukraine.
Russia claimed the project would have been able to double gas volumes to Europe and ease prices.
It comes as Europe has been suffering from an energy crisis with prices skyrocketing and supplies plummeting.
Many have blamed this on Russia’s willingness to cut volumes of gas travelling into the continent through its pipeline network.
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But others have also held Europe responsible for letting its gas storage levels run low over the winter months as demand soared and supplies from Russia dropped.
Experts have suggested Europe may not be to part ways with Russia any time soon.
Liquified natural gas (LNG), separate from Russia’s pipeline gas which can be used as an alternative source, is not as readily available, analysts say.
According to Politico, LNG terminals are already at full capacity, with new ones taking years to build.
This means Europe will still need Russian imports, which make up 40 percent of Europe’s gas supplies.
And Ukraine is a key transit route for that gas, a third of which passes through it via pipelines.
Fears are soaring about Russia retaliating to Western sanctions, including the move to cancel Nord Stream 2, by cutting more of Europe’s gas.
And, as Ukraine may have to purchase more gas off the EU and US once it completely slashes its energy ties with Russia, it could be vulnerable to the soaring prices caused by Russia’s manipulation of the market.
Mr Bochkov said: “If it’s implemented (ENTS-O), Ukraine will become more autonomous in its decisions without constantly looking back at how Russia could reply to this or that strategic manoeuvrings.
“But it will effectively make itself extremely reliant on the US-EU supplies which are not large enough to cover all the demand.
“So, it is likely to lead to higher prices and markets fluctuation.”
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