Russia: Threat of nuclear strike 'is real' says analysts
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The war in Ukraine has put civilian nuclear plants on the frontline of a military conflict for the first time in history, Dr Paul Dorfman has claimed that the conflict in Ukraine has shown that the UK’s own civilian nuclear infrastructure is at risk of attack, and likely cannot be defended.
Dr Dorfman is Associate Fellow, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), Sussex Business School, University of Sussex. He has worked with both the Government as well as European Governments on various areas of nuclear policy.
Following the shelling at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the largest in Europe, Dr Dorfman said he “didn’t sleep for a few days”.
Dr Dorfman warned that if a nuclear reactor was attacked it could be “catastrophic”. He warned of a “nightmare scenario” which could range from a core meltdown to a widespread release of radioactive material.
He said: “If a nuclear power plant was hit by a missile in the UK, Europe or Ukraine, there could be catastrophic widespread radioactive contamination.”
The UK’s nuclear reactors, including those in the process of being built, are not meant to withstand a military strike, according to Dr Dorfman.
He said: “Nuclear power plants are not meant to withstand military strikes, and this has serious implications for any new civil nuclear plants, planned or being built in the UK.
“The reality is you can’t defend nuclear power plants from a concerted military strike, or even a stray missile.”
he Ministry of Defence (MoD) disputed the comments, although it would not go into specifics regarding the defence of nuclear plants.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “The Government takes any potential threat to the UK seriously. While we don’t comment on specific security arrangements, we have confidence in existing measures to protect UK airspace.”
The MoD noted that it constantly monitors the UK’s airspace to identify any credible threats.
Although the reactor itself is somewhat more protected from a strike, things like the spent fuel storage – where already used and irradiated spent fuel is stored – are more vulnerable to an attack and could release radioactive material into surrounding areas if hit.
Dr Dorfman said: “The fact is no reactors, including the new…reactor being built at Hinkley Point, have been designed to fully defend against a sustained military attack, especially, from missiles.”
“Missile improvement means that short and medium-range missiles can deliver warheads with an accuracy range in the tens of metres.”
He added: “[The] Russian invasion of Ukraine has proven that civil nuclear is on the front-line, and not in a good way.”
Designing new reactors to withstand military strikes would be prohibitively expensive and existing reactors would continue to be vulnerable, according to Dr Dorfman.
During the conflict in Ukraine, there have been reports that radioactive materials have been released from the soil following Russian troop movements through the Chornobyl exclusion zone, the site of the worst nuclear disaster of the 20th century.
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One plant employee called the move “suicidal” for the Russian soldiers there. Dr Dorfman claimed that this incident was localised and likely didn’t constitute widespread nuclear contamination, but could affect Russian troops on the ground.
Russian forces continue to occupy the Zaporizhzhia power plant and Ukraine’s nuclear energy authority, the National Nuclear Energy Generating Company of Ukraine, fears that they may turn off the cooling systems there using the pretext of weapons searches.
In a post on Telegram, it said: “The invaders, who are at the ZNPP, are going to accuse the Ukrainian nuclear power plant workers of storing weapons within the territory of the plant.
“For this purpose, several plant workers were detained and tortured to coerce a confession (or rather to accept blame) that back in March, they had dropped some weapons, explosives or shells, into the concrete basins of the cooling pools at ZNPP.”
The agency has warned that if Zaporizhzhia is left without cooling, it would become a major threat to nuclear security.
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