Yellowstone Supervolcano: Expert discusses potential eruption
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Beneath the picturesque Yellowstone National Park, filled with geysers and hot springs, lies an enormous magma chamber. Geophysicist Robert Smith’s research eight years ago suggested that the magma chamber is now 80 kilometres (50 miles) long, and 20 km (12 mi) wide. A study last month warned “the concept of what is ‘eruptible’ needs to be re-evaluated” as new research suggested volcanic eruptions can still occur even without the known presence of liquid magma.
Previous knowledge about the likelihood of supervolcano eruptions was based on the presence of liquid magma.
Associate Professor Martin Danisik and a team from Oregon State University published their findings in the journal Communications Earth & Environment after studying Lake Toba in Sumatra, a body of water underneath which a supervolcano lies.
NASA claimed a supervolcano eruption remains one of the greatest natural threats to human life, and is “substantially greater than the asteroid or comet threat”, according to Brian Wilcox of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Professor Danisik echoed this in the study. He said: “[Supervolcano eruptions] can impact global climate to the point of tipping the Earth into a ‘volcanic winter’, which is an abnormally cold period that may result in widespread famine and population disruption.”
The last eruption of the Lake Toba supervolcano resulted in a “genetic bottleneck in human evolution”, according to Professor Danisik and his team’s findings.
They believe human populations rapidly shrunk to between 3,000 and 10,000 individuals between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago.
There is some genetic evidence to support their claim.
A BBC report from 2017 detailed NASA’s plan to attempt to prevent another eruption. There are around 20 supervolcanoes on Earth, and Professor Danisik said super-eruptions happen about once every 17,000 years.
The most recent super-eruption came from the supervolcano beneath New Zealand’s Lake Taupo in 26,500 BC.
NASA, contacting the BBC after the broadcaster published an article about supervolcanoes, sent scientists to consider the issue. They concluded that the most logical solution could involve simply cooling down the Yellowstone volcano.
If the amount of heat extracted from the Yellowstone supervolcano could be increased, NASA argued it would never erupt. They estimated a 35% increase in heat transfer would be required for it to no longer pose a threat.
Mr Wilcox explained that building a big aqueduct to increase the amount of water in the supervolcano was ruled out early on.
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He said: “People don’t want their water spent that way. People are desperate for water all over the world and so a major infrastructure project, where the only way the water is used is to cool down a supervolcano, would be very controversial.”
Instead, the NASA team proposed drilling up to 10km down into the supervolcano, and pumping water down at high pressure.
The water would cool the volcano, and the outgoing water, reaching temperatures of approximately 350°C could be used to generate electricity.
The project would come at an estimated cost of approximately $3.46bn (£2.54bn). Mr Wilcox argued geothermal companies would need incentives to drill deeper, and use hotter water than they normally would.
However, drilling into the supervolcano comes with its own risks, notably triggering the eruption they wish to prevent.
Mr Wilcox acknowledged this: “The most important thing with this is to do no harm. If you drill into the top of the magma chamber and try and cool it from there, this would be very risky.
“This would make the cap over the magma chamber more brittle and prone to fracture.”
A Discover Magazine report last year explained the heightened explosivity of the 2010 eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano was caused by the addition of water from melting ice.
The report also explained the volume of water needed would be equivalent to one of the Great Lakes in America to “even make a dent”.
Despite the 1-2,000 measurable earthquakes seen in the region each year, there are limited signs a Yellowstone eruption is coming any time soon.
There is little evidence to suggest the magma is in a state that could erupt.
Mr Wilcox finished, however, saying: “Yellowstone explodes roughly every 600,000 years, and it is about 600,000 years since it last exploded, which should cause us to sit up and take notice.”
The Discover report, in contrast, said we cannot know if these eruptions happen with any cyclicality given their infrequency.
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