The lessons of the 2008 housing crisis are a living memory, and the effects of the recession of that era still are being felt. Although today’s housing market is largely hot, experts are bracing for a wave of evictions triggered by pandemic-related disruptions. That, they fear, could be the catalyst for a different kind of housing crisis that could rival even the dreariest days of the Great Recession.
Some American cities are much more vulnerable to a housing downturn than others, according to a new study from GOBankingRates.
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Using data from sources that include the U.S. Census Bureau, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2019 American Community Survey and RealtyTrac, GOBankingRates identified the 40 cities most at risk for experiencing a widespread housing crisis. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures, and homeowner and rental vacancy rates.
All 40 are among the 200 largest cities in the country, but they aren't spread out equally across the nation. States such as Texas, for example, are disproportionately represented with seven cities on the list. California, on the other hand, doesn’t have a single entry despite a population of nearly 40 million and some of the most expensive housing markets in America.
Last updated: Jan. 25, 2021
Hartford, Connecticut
Total housing units: 57,267
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,758 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.7%
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Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Total housing units: 158,561
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,438 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.5%
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Hampton, Virginia
Total housing units: 60,130
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,598 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.3%
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Clearwater, Florida
Total housing units: 60,504
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,321 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%
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Corpus Christi, Texas
Total housing units: 134,604
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,732 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.4%
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Newark, New Jersey
Total housing units: 113,623
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,226 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.6%
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San Antonio, Texas
Total housing units: 561,467
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,142 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%
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Killeen, Texas
Total housing units: 64,280
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,414 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 4.3%
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Louisville, Kentucky
Total housing units: 282,781
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,666 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%
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Jacksonville, Florida
Total housing units: 396,542
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,082 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.9%
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Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Total housing units: 108,880
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,662 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.6%
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Miami, Florida
Total housing units: 221,040
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,678 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.9%
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Atlanta, Georgia
Total housing units: 253,597
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,425 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.7%
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Total housing units: 62,321
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.0%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,704 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%
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Topeka, Kansas
Total housing units: 60,013
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,833 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.8%
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Memphis, Tennessee
Total housing units: 301,473
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,485 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%
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Amarillo, Texas
Total housing units: 85,889
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.5%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,394 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.4%
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Birmingham, Alabama
Total housing units: 113,421
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,149 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.6%
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Norfolk, Virginia
Total housing units: 98,476
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,997 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.9%
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Springfield, Massachusetts
Total housing units: 60,454
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.2%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 7,336 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.8%
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Tulsa, Oklahoma
Total housing units: 187,906
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,916 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.0%
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Orlando, Florida
Total housing units: 138,456
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,481 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 6.0%
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El Paso, Texas
Total housing units: 250,077
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,424 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.4%
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Syracuse, New York
Total housing units: 71,806
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 9,575 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 5.2%
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Miami Beach, Florida
Total housing units: 65,746
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,175 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 8.7%
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Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Total housing units: 691,653
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,675 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.1%
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Little Rock, Arkansas
Total housing units: 97,530
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.2%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,141 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.1%
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Brownsville, Texas
Total housing units: 59,943
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 5.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 20,075 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%
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Lafayette, Louisiana
Total housing units: 59,431
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,467 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.4%
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Mobile, Alabama
Total housing units: 92,545
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,799 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.8%
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New Orleans, Louisiana
Total housing units: 192,236
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.4%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,173 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%
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Augusta, Georgia
Total housing units: 87,800
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,879 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.3%
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Baltimore, Maryland
Total housing units: 293,877
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,163 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.2%
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Columbus, Georgia
Total housing units: 85,251
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.4%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,004 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%
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Shreveport, Louisiana
Total housing units: 91,088
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,156 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.1%
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Fayetteville, North Carolina
Total housing units: 94,480
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.0
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.7%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,020 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.9%
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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Total housing units: 104,145
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.5%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.7%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,703 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.4%
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Jackson, Mississippi
Total housing units: 75,146
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,465 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.5%
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Macon, Georgia
Total housing units: 70,014
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.9%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,260 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%
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Laredo, Texas
Total housing units: 80,365
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 8.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,322 homes
Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.9%
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Methodology: To find the 40 cities that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at the 200 largest cities in terms of total housing units across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2019 American Community Survey; and (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2019 American Community Survey. These four factors then were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, and factor (4) was weighted 0.5x. The 100 cities most poised for a housing crisis were moved onto the next round of scoring. These 100 cities then were re-ranked and scored on the four factors above as well as (5) foreclosure rate as sourced from RealtyTrac. These five factors were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. For this second round of scoring, factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, factor (4) was weighted 0.5x, and factor (5) was weighted 1.5x. All data were collected on and are up to date as of Oct. 8, 2020.
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis
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