China’s trade sanctions on Australia have backfired, and by standing up to Beijing Australia “set an incredibly powerful example” for the world, according to the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.
“I think China has lost more than Australia has in its efforts to squeeze Australia economically,” Mr Blinken said. Beijing would be “thinking twice about this in the future”, he told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in an interview.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Melbourne on Thursday.Credit:Eddie Jim
The Biden administration’s chief diplomat is in Melbourne for talks with his counterparts from the Quad nations – Australia, India, Japan and the US – while simultaneously negotiating to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine.
His visit in the midst of the Ukraine crisis “only reinforces the point that for us, as a Pacific nation ourselves, we see the future, we see it here and you have got to keep focus on the core thing even as you deal with the challenge of the moment”.
Mr Blinken said that if Russia did attack its neighbour, he would expect Australia to contribute to imposing “massive costs” on Moscow, diplomatic and political as well as financial and economic, but not military.
The Quad ministers, meeting on Friday, are expected to discuss the Ukraine crisis in an effort to reach a joint position. The leaders of the four Indo-Pacific democracies are due to hold a summit in the next few months.
While China has imposed boycotts on more than $20 billion worth of Australian products, US companies have taken their place in some areas of the Chinese market. Asked whether there was a more effective way that countries could deal with Beijing’s trade coercion, Mr Blinken had no direct solution to offer.
He first paid tribute to “the very good and effective work that Australia has done, and Australian companies have done, in terms of diversifying markets and supply chains, tremendous resilience that I think will have China thinking twice about this in the future”.
The Australian trade economist Tim Harcourt concurred with Mr Blinken’s assessment that China had lost more than Australia through its punitive sanctions.
“China disrupted their own supply chains – they have shortages now in coal and iron ore and Australian exporters have been able to effectively diversify.
“They have energy security issues, they have food security issues, they have 300 million middle class kids wanting to go to uni, so anything aggressive was going to hurt China.”
Coincidentally, the Financial Times on Wednesday carried the headline: “Australia offers timely lessons in resisting Chinese trade coercion”.
Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in September said that total exports to China in affected sectors “are estimated to have fallen by around $5.4 billion over the year to the June quarter” but that exports of those goods to the rest of the world have increased by $4.4 billion. The implied loss to affected Australian industries was $1 billion over the year.
Mr Blinken pointed out that the US supported Australia’s economy as the biggest foreign investor by its accumulated stock of investment, although Japan was the biggest source of new investment in Australia last year.
He said that while the five-month-old AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the US, and the UK was new, “there’s a lot of focus” on how best to get US nuclear propulsion technology into submarines for Australia.
He said Washington was “looking at the most effecive and efficient pathways to move that forward – there’s a lot of focus on that now. As well, of course, as setting the standard when it comes to upholding the non-proliferation regime.”
Mr Blinken was keen to draw attention to “the flip side of the AUKUS coin, which is collaboration among us – and potentially other countries coming in – on other things that are going to be vital to our security and wellbeing, particularly collaboration on emerging technologies, on AI, on quantum, but also on supply chains and building more resilience there.
“That’s also a part of AUKUS and that’s going to make a profound difference to sustainable security for all our countries.”
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