Has Putin forced Belarus to enter Ukraine war? Lukashenko’s military vehicles have red square ‘war signs’ painted on, mimicking Russia’s ‘Z’ symbols
- Belarus ordered snap ‘combat readiness’ checks on its armed forces this week
- Armoured vehicles since spotted with ‘war markings’ to help drivers distinguish friend from foe in actual combat – similar to Russian ‘Z’ symbol
- Fears are growing that Belarus could soon join Ukraine war to help ally Putin
Fears that Belarus could soon be forced to join the Ukraine war are growing after military vehicles were seen with ‘combat symbols’ painted on them.
State TV footage of armoured vehicles taking part in snap ‘combat readiness’ drills near Ukraine’s borders showed they have red squares painted on them, which would allow drivers to recognise each-other during actual combat.
Vladimir Putin also ordered military drills near Ukraine’s borders with ‘Z’ markings appearing on Russian tanks just before he ordered a full-scale invasion in February.
Dictator Alexander Lukashenko has so-far avoided throwing his army into the maw of fighting in Ukraine, but has allowed Belarusian territory to be used for attacks.
Belarus armoured vehicles taking part in snap combat drills near Ukraine have appeared in state propaganda images with what appears to be ‘war markings’ on them
The red squares appear designed so drivers can distinguish between friend and foe during actual combat, in echoes of the Russian ‘Z’ war symbol
Russian troops tasked with seizing Kyiv early in the war had advanced on the city from Belarus, and missiles which devastated the capital were fired from there.
Pressure is thought to have been growing on Lukashenko to commit his forces to the fight after Russia began placing more of its own troops on his territory in September.
But he is hesitating – likely because he fears that his army, a shadow of its Russian counterpart, would be mauled in the fighting.
Since control of the military is vital to maintaining control of the country, that could spark a serious challenge to Lukashenko’s rule – coming just two years after he narrowly survived the last popular uprising.
Western intelligence still believes an attack from Belarus is unlikely, and that Russia is placing troops there as a distraction tactic to stop Ukraine relocating troops tasked with defending Kyiv to the frontlines in the south and east.
Oleksiy Arestovych, a former military intelligence officer turned Ukrainian presidential adviser, concurred with that analysis this week.
‘Belarus is now a distraction for us,’ he said in a weekly podcast.
Belarus has so-far avoided throwing its armed forces into the Ukraine war, but has allowed its territory to be used for attacks on its neighbour
Vladimir Putin is thought to be putting pressure on Belarus counterpart Alexander Lukashenko to join the war but he is resisting, perhaps because he fears losing control of his country
“There is an active information operation and the movement of a minimum number of troops near the northern borders of Ukraine.”
A flurry of Belarusian military action, including a counter-terrorism exercise last week, has kept Ukraine guessing about Minsk’s intentions.
Russia and Belarus are formally part of a “union state” and are closely allied economically and militarily.
In a video statement published by the Belarus Defence Ministry earlier this week, Alexander Volfovich, state secretary of the Security Council, said the checks would encompass practically all Belarus’s operational commands.
As part of this, one military unit had been given a mission to secure “a target on the southern border”, he said
The tasks will stem from analysis of what Russia terms its “special military operation” in Ukraine, he added.
Western military analysts say Belarus’s small army lacks the strength and combat experience to make a decisive difference, but the risk that it might intervene from the north is a burdensome distraction for Ukraine as it focuses on fighting Russian forces in the south and east.
A Russian tank with the ‘Z’ symbol – which allows friend to be distinguished from foe during combat – is seen in the Mariupol region of Ukraine
The Belarusian Defence Ministry had said earlier that, as part of the exercise announced on Tuesday, troops would have to move quickly to “designated areas” and set up bridge crossings over the Neman and Berezina rivers in western and eastern Belarus.
“During this period, it is planned to move military equipment and personnel, and to temporarily restrict the movement of citizens (transport) along certain public roads and sections of terrain,” it said.
Separately, Andrei Lukyanovich, previously deputy commander of the air force, was promoted to take charge of the air force and air defence units, the state news agency Belta said, after his predecessor was removed on grounds of age last month.
Lukashenko also named Sergei Aleinik to head the foreign ministry, replacing Vladimir Makei, who died suddenly at the age of 64 last month. Officials have still not stated the cause of Makei’s death.
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