London: Word came just 90 minutes after Liz Truss had announced her resignation: Boris Johnson was considering running for the Tory leadership again and was planning to fly back from his Caribbean holiday to Westminster.
Cincinnatus, it seemed, was poised for his comeback. Yet as the historian Mary Beard pointed out when the former prime minister referred to the Roman dictator in his resignation speech in July, even though he saved the state from invasion in 5 BC, “he was also an enemy of the people”.
Could a Boris Johnson comeback be on the cards?Credit:Getty
Can one of the most divisive politicians in recent memory really return to lead his fractious party into the next general election? While it may have worked for his hero Winston Churchill, Johnson needs not only to neutralise his opponents but also to galvanise his supporters.
It would be difficult for any politician, but throw in the fact that Johnson is in a marginal seat and facing a Privileges Committee investigation, it is a tall order even for the colleague David Cameron once nicknamed the “greased piglet” for his ability to slip out of sticky situations.
With some backbenchers already threatening to resign or cross the floor if Johnson returns to the Despatch Box, the 58-year-old’s best hope of uniting the Tories would seem to be on a joint ticket with Rishi Sunak.
By getting the band back together, the pair could offer a prime minister with a proven track record as a campaigner – and a deputy the markets can trust. (With Jeremy Hunt having ruled himself out of the leadership race as he continues to prepare the Hallowe’en fiscal statement, it is assumed he would remain Chancellor).
The idea, however, is not without its pitfalls. For starters, there is no love lost between the former inhabitants of No 10 and No 11 after Sunak’s resignation prompted Johnson’s demise. The former prime minister’s supporters, including most of the European Research Group (ERG), still haven’t forgiven the former chancellor for it; indeed, they see him as the catalyst for the current crisis.
Although Sunak is being encouraged by the likes of David Davis to campaign on a joint ticket with Penny Mordaunt as his deputy PM, he knows he needs the support of the Right to avoid the party spending the next two years eating itself.
He could argue that as a “Brexiteer for life, rather than just for Christmas”, he has got the Leavers’ backs – but according to several ERG members, they remain unlikely to be convinced. “He is seen as the ultimate establishment stooge,” said one. Another added: “He’s a terrible campaigner and proved that during the last leadership race. He’s got a faulty character. He gets chippy and defensive at the drop of a hat.”
If the vote was just down to MPs, Sunak arguably has a bigger chance of walking straight into No 10. Many Tories, even though they appreciate Johnson’s electioneering skills, are fearful of what one called “another soap opera”. There remain concerns about his wife Carrie’s influence on matters such as net zero, and who would be in his team following a string of disastrous appointments including Dominic Cummings. Although as one MP pointed out: “When Boris left office his team was much better with David Canzini and Guto Harri.”
Friends again? Johnson’s best shot at becoming PM again is having Rishi Sunak as his deputy.Credit:Getty
But the announcement that members will vote online for the final two means Sunak will struggle to beat Johnson if recent polling is anything to go by. On Tuesday, a YouGov survey found 63 per cent of Tory members think Johnson would be best to replace Truss, with 32 per cent putting him as their top candidate, followed by Sunak at 23 per cent. A survey of The Daily Mail readers found 72 per cent wanted to “Bring back Boris”. All this depends on Johnson making the final two – when he is behind both Sunak and Mordaunt according to latest odds.
He has an advantage because, in the face of Labour calls for a general election, he is the only one who can claim a mandate having won the 2019 general election with a majority of 80. He will also be able to argue that he is the only Tory capable of winning back the Red Wall, with Labour now more than 30 points ahead in the polls.
With the candidate selection process due to be expedited over the weekend, the former Prime Minister not only needs to take urgent soundings from supporters – but also has to be certain that he won’t face any competition from fellow Brexiteer, Suella Braverman – or Kemi Badenoch, also popular with the Right, although closeness to “Michaevellian” Michael Gove is likely to work against her.
One veteran Tory explained: “If it’s going to work for Boris then the Right can’t be split – they’ve got to move as one, especially if Sunak has the full support of the One Nation group.”
But even that is not guaranteed, if Mordaunt runs directly against him – or if the caucus is carved up further with the emergence of another moderate candidate like Grant Shapps.
Then there is the issue of Johnson’s Privileges Committee probe, although as one senior pointed out: “The investigation can only happen if Tories vote for it.”
Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat is also in the balance – like so many Conservative constituencies. If he can convince colleagues that he can not only win his own seat back – but theirs, too, then the self-appointed “world king” may be poised to become the king of comebacks.
The Telegraph, London
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