Coronavirus R rate creeps above crucial 1 in London but remains stable across UK

THE CORONAVIRUS R rate has remained stable across the UK despite creeping above 1 in London.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson this morning announced that the R rate is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 across the UK, while today's figures from SAGE put the range for England between 0.8 and 1.0.

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Despite the positive outlook for most of England, the R rate currently sits between 0.8 and 1.1 in London.

The figure gives an indication of whether or not the Covid-19 outbreak is growing.

Above 1, and it's a sign the epidemic is spreading, while below it indicates an outbreak in decline.

London was hit hardest at the beginning of the pandemic as cases across the city grew more than anywhere else in the country.

Yesterday it was also revealed that there has been no new deaths in the capital over the last 24 hours.

The latest figures from the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) show that the rate of spread of the coronavirus infection across the UK – the growth rate – is at minus 5 per cent to minus 1 per cent.

What does R Rate mean?

R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.

Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread – and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.

For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.

It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.


The South West is also in a similar position to London and its R rate sits between 0.7 and 1.1.

While, in the Midlands the crucial reproduction number is between 0.7 and 1.0.

In both the South East and the South West the R rate is between 0.8 and 1.0, and the North West is sitting somewhere between 0.7 and 1.0.

The only place in England where the R rate is not pushing 1 is Yorkshire and the North East, where it sits between 0.7 and 0.9.

Dr Daniel Lawson, a statistician at the University of Bristol, said: "These data allow us to be cautiously optimistic.

"There is no indication that the epidemic has gotten out of hand as a result of the easements.

"However we must stay completely vigilant because there is a delay of at least two weeks before an increase in the reproductive rate of the virus is visible in the data."

R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.

Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread – and the number informs policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.

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The figure gives an indication of whether or not the Covid-19 outbreak is growing.

Above one, and it's a sign the epidemic is spreading, while below one indicates an outbreak in decline.

But critics of the R rate have pointed out it does not tell us how quickly an epidemic is changing.

That's why the Government introduced a new measure – the growth rate, which gives insight on the size and speed of change, whereas the R rate only gives information on the direction of change.

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