BRITAIN'S R rate has dropped this week for the first time in a month – as coronavirus cases start to level off across the country, experts claim.
The current R value – the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to – is now estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.4.
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It comes after data from the Office for National Statistics revealed that England recorded 35,000 new cases of the virus a day from October 10 to 16.
Last week it was reported that there were an average of 27,900 new cases a day – a 62 per cent increase from September 25 to October 1.
But experts warn that both sets of figures show that the pandemic is still growing.
Prof Kevin McConway, a statistician at The Open University said that the R rate is growing at a "rapid rate" but admitted that this was "substantially slower than March".
The R rate has dropped from last week when it sat between 1.3 and 1.5.
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
An R number between 1.2 and 1.4 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people.
Across the English regions – the R rate currently sits between 1.2-1.4.
The South West currently has the highest R rate range and sits between 1.3 to 1.6 and has a growth rate of five to nine per cent each day.
The UK as a whole has a growth rate of three to six per cent each day.
A growth rate between three and six per cent means the number of new infections is growing by three per cent to six per cent every day.
In the East of England, the R rate is currently between 1.2 and 1.4 and the region has a growth rate of three to six per cent.
Last week London was moved from Tier 1 restrictions to Tier 2 – which means people cannot mix in households if they do not live together.
The R rate in London is currently between 1.1 and 1.3 and the capital has a growth rate of two to five per cent.
The Midlands also has an R rate between 1.1 and 1.3 and the same growth rate as London.
What does R rate mean?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread – and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
Nottingham- which is in the East Midlands is currently one of the most infected places in the country but has so far managed to stay out of Tier 3 – with the local council in ongoing talks with the government.
Nottingham currently has 610.1 infections per 100,000 of the population and sits just behind Knowsley which has 662.9.
The North East and Yorkshire, as well as the North West have the same rate and London and the Midlands.
The South East sits between 1.2 and 1.5 with a growth rate of four to seven percent.
Prof McConway added: "The indication of faster growth rates in the South do indicate that there’s no room for complacency about the pandemic anywhere in the country, even in places where infections rates are currently quite low.
"I hope that current measures to contain the virus do turn out to be effective in slowing and, before long, reversing these increases.
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"There’s some evidence from some Northern regions that things can improve, but they haven’t improved nearly enough yet.”
Earlier this week Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the tiers system is working to push the R rate down again – as he again rejected another national lockdown.
Speaking at a press conference yesterday he said the R rate was around half of what it would be if there were no rules and restrictions put on the country.
"There are clear signs that our collections actions are working", he added.
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