If we can learn one thing about the return of Barnaby Joyce to the leadership of the National Party, it’s that politicians would prefer a polarising and populist leader over a smaller target.
Joyce, who Tony Abbott once described as Australia’s best retail politician, is loved and despised in equal measure.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce during Question Time on Thursday.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen
Few politicians have faced such a comprehensive annihilation of their character as Barnaby Joyce but a majority of his colleagues agreed to resurrect him because they think he offers them the best chance of electoral success.
Those who supported his return praise his authenticity, his ability to talk directly to voters without spin and his apparent willingness to stand up for regional Australians.
Given his personal failings, it may seem odd that a majority of his colleagues still view him as an electoral asset. It’s not about liking him personally. It’s clear they're just willing to overlook those faults for a leader who can generate buzz and take on the government and opposition in ways his predecessor never did.
They also know that voters who view him as brash, ill-disciplined and guilty of behaviour unbecoming of a Deputy Prime Minister were unlikely to vote for the National Party anyway.
Nationals MP Michael McCormack and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen
O’Brien’s internal critics, those who want Matthew Guy back, believe that Guy (like Joyce) is more likely to inspire the base with a punchy style and clearer policy direction. They argue he’ll also rev up the party room with his constant attacks on his opponents.
From the outside it might seem odd that the Liberals would want to return to Guy, who was roundly rejected by voters in 2018.
The Victorian Liberal Party’s election review found the Coalition's chances at the last election were seriously hurt by Guy's time as planning minister, his hardline approach to the African gangs issue as well as his infamous lobster dinner.
Liberal MPs know this but are willing to overlook these failings for a more combative leader.
Michael O’Brien took over from Matthew Guy after the 2018 election. Credit:The Age
In part this can be explained by the increasingly presidential nature of our political system. In theory, voters elect local members, and the party selects the leader. In reality Australia is creeping towards a more presidential style of politics where there is a stronger emphasis on the choice between two leaders, not necessarily the two parties.
This was on display at the last federal election when it was pitched as a battle between the relatively unknown Morrison and Bill Shorten. Labor’s election review later found Shorten's unpopularity was a major factor in the election loss.
Joyce’s return also goes some way to explaining Daniel Andrews’ strong grip on power in the face of political scandals, lengthy lockdowns and an extended absence.
Polling shows us that Andrews remains a divisive character in Victoria.
The latest poll by by Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, found Andrews recorded a net “likeability” rating of plus 10 per cent, with 42 per cent of voters expressing a positive view of him, compared with 32 per cent feeling negatively towards him.
By comparison, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian recorded a likeability score of plus 33 points. Even Andrews’ deputy James Merlino, who has been acting Premier since March, has a likeability score of plus 15 per cent.
This love-hate relationship with the Premier extends to his party room. Andrews has had a bitter falling out with many of his sidelined ministers including Jane Garrett, Adem Somyurek, Marlene Kairouz and Jenny Mikakos – and they’re just the ones the public knows about – but even they know he offers the party the strongest chance of staying in power.
His daily coronavirus briefings made him a household name across the country, a feat achieved by few premiers in the past. The overwhelming view among his colleagues is that Andrews will stay in the job until a time of his choosing, because challenging him would be electorally disastrous.
If we are to take one thing from the resurrection of Barnaby Joyce it is that politicians will stick with the leader most likely to lead them to government.
Annika Smethurst is state political editor.
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