NHS hospitals brace for a ‘bumpy ride’ amid spike in Covid: Admissions may spiral to an 18-MONTH high and jeapordise efforts to tackle the record backlog, health chiefs warn
- Government advisers fear resurgence will eclipse April’s wave, when admissions spiralled to 2,500-a-day
- If rates do continue to climb in the coming weeks, it means Covid hospitalisations will hit an 18-month high
- Left-leaning scientists have already demanded a return of mask-wearing and urged Brits to meet outside
NHS hospitals are bracing themselves for a ‘bumpy ride’ over the coming weeks, with Covid cases and hospital admissions set to keep rising.
Trust bosses fear Britain’s uptick, which shows no signs of slowing yet, will jeapordise efforts to tackle the record backlogs that built-up during the pandemic.
Government advisers also fear the resurgence will eclipse April’s wave, when virus admissions spiralled to above 2,500-a-day. If that does happen, it means hospitalisations will hit an 18-month high.
Roughly 2.3million Britons had Covid in the week ending June 24, up by a third on the previous seven-day spell. Even though rates are climbing quickly, they remain a fraction of levels seen in previous peaks.
There are about 1,500 admissions for the virus a day, however NHS data suggests only a fraction of these patients are primarily ill with Covid.
Left-leaning scientists have already demanded a return of mask-wearing and urged Brits to meet outside because of the new wave, driven by the Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5. Some hospitals have reimposed their own rules on face coverings.
Ministers have no plans to bring back any curbs yet, although the Prime Minister has left the door open to future measures.
Infectious disease specialists, including members of the Government’s notorious SAGE panel, are confident that the darkest days of the UK’s Covid battle are over. Sky-high immunity rates, achieved from vaccines and repeated waves, have drastically blunted the virus’s threat.
It comes after one of the country’s top Covid chiefs urged Britons to wear face coverings on Sunday, in a noticeable ramping up of public health messaging. Dame Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said she personally would wear one on the Tube.
Trust bosses fear Britain’s Covid uptick will jeapordise efforts to tackle the record backlog that built-up during the pandemic. Government advisers also fear the resurgence will eclipse April’s wave, when virus admissions spiralled to above 2,500-a-day. If that does happen, it means hospitalisations (shown in the graph) will hit an 18-month high
The number of patients in hospital with Covid is also rising, eclipsing 10,000 for the first time in months. Crucially, however, NHS data suggests only a third of these are primarily ill with the virus
The number of Covid patients in ICU is continuing to fall in a promising sign, but it can take several weeks for upticks in infections to translate to serious illness
Total deaths involving Covid are hovering at around 60 per day in England, shown
Covid infections have shot up in England to just over 1.8million according to the latest Office of National Statistics data
BA.4 and BA.5 are thought to be even more infectious than their ancestral versions. However, they are just as mild.
Celebrations for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, half-term holidays and warm weather are also thought to be fuelling the latest surge. Some have also pointed to Britons mistaking Covid symptoms for hay fever.
The UKHSA’s Dame Jenny Harries said it does not look as though the current wave has peaked and urged people to ‘go about their normal lives’ but in a ‘precautionary way’.
She told the BBC’s Sunday Morning programme: ‘It doesn’t look as though that wave has finished yet, so we would anticipate that hospital cases will rise. And it’s possible, quite likely, that they will actually peak over the previous BA.2 wave.
‘But I think the overall impact, we won’t know. It’s easy to say in retrospect, it’s not so easy to model forward.’
She said the majority of cases in the UK now are BA.4 and BA.5 and that the latter is ‘really pushing and driving this current wave’.
She added people should ‘go about their normal lives but in that precautionary way’ — highlighting handwashing, keeping distance where possible and wearing a face covering in enclosed, poorly ventilated places.
How dominant Covid variants in England have changed over time: The BA.4 and BA.5 (shown far right in pale pink and red) are have outstripped the formerly dominant BA.2 variant (sky blue). BA.5 is growing at a faster rate and will become the dominant strain, experts predict. The original Wuhan virus is shown in green (far left) which was replaced by the Alpha strain (purple) and Delta (pale turquoise). The original Omicron is shown in yellow and a very similar subvariant in pink from December
The soon-to-be dominant BA.5 variant has grown rapidly in the past two months. It accounted for just 3 per cent of overall cases in early May (shown left) but now makes up almost half (47 per cent) shown right
The ONS figures show one in 30 people in England about 3.35 per cent had Covid last week, with a similar percentage of Wales (3.49 per cent) also estimated to have the virus
Infections were highest in Scotland with one in 18 people (288,200) estimated to have the virus followed by Northern Ireland where one in 25 (71,000) were carrying the virus
The ONS figures show Covid across all of England’s regions. Infections were highest in London at 3.7 per cent, followed by by the East of England, the North West, and the North East which recorded 3.6 per cent. This was followed by the South West with 3.5 per cent. The West Midlands (3.2 per cent) the South East (3.1 per cent) and Yorkshire The Humber (3 per cent) all had Covid rates below the national average for England. The East Midlands recorded the lowest Covid infection rate in England of 2.8 per cent
In England Covid infections were most likely in people aged 50 to 69 (4.2 per cent), followed by 25-to-34-year-olds (4 per cent), and 16 to 24-year-olds (3.6 per cent). Infections were slightly lower in those aged 35 to 49 (3.5 per cent) and in the over-70s (3.1 per cent), 11 to 15-year-olds (2.3 per cent) and lowest in two to 10-year-olds (1.3 per cent).
Covid booster jabs ‘in Autumn’: Health officials back Omicron-specific jab
Health officials have given their first public backing for an Omicron-specific booster jab this Autumn that is set to ‘increase and extend’ protection.
GPs in Britain have been told that the NHS is preparing to start its booster campaign on September 1, with officials expressing a ‘definite interest’ in Moderna’s new vaccine.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is recommending people over the age of 65 get a booster jab, but the chief medical officer of Moderna has suggested they are given to everyone, including children.
The company says it has already produced millions of doses of a new jab which it claims is five times better than the original vaccine, and is specifically tailored to counter the Omicron variant of the disease.
However, this new jab still needs to be given the green light by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) before it can be rolled out, with officials prepared to use already approved vaccines if it isn’t.
It comes as case numbers have soared in recent weeks, with the more contagious variant sweeping through the UK.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates around 2.3 million people currently have the disease, with infections jumping by a third in just one week.
Hospital admissions have also trebled in the last month, piling pressure on an already overwhelmed NHS, although only a fraction of patients are primarily ill with the disease.
She said she has not been routinely wearing a face mask, but she does routinely carry one and would wear it on the Tube and if she was with someone who was ‘quite anxious’ about Covid.
Speaking about masks, she said: ‘If I’ve got any respiratory infection it’s a good thing to do and I think it’s a new lesson for the country.’
Asked if it matters that a lot of people are getting infected, she said aside from the effect on individuals, it also ‘matters on a national basis’.
‘Whilst we have an armament now of vaccines and antiviral treatments, we do have, as you’ve just highlighted, a rise in hospital admissions and occupancy,’ she said.
‘And that means it’s not just Covid that we’re concerned about, but it’s actually our ability to treat other illnesses as well.’
A total of 2.3million people in private households are estimated to have had the virus last week, up 32 per cent on a week earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is the highest estimate for total infections since late April, but is still some way below the record of 4.9million at the peak of the Omicron BA.2 wave at the end of March.
Hospital admissions are rising, piling pressure on an already overwhelmed NHS. Up to 1,500 infected patients are being placed on wards every day currently, compared to around 450 at the end of May.
But the admission figures do not tell the full story as analysis suggests only a third (37.7 per cent) are primarily ill with Covid.
The rest are known as ‘incidental’ cases, patients who went to hospital for a different reason but happened to test positive. Incidentals have become increasingly common because the extremely infectious but milder Omicron subvariants are so prevalent in the wider community.
Covid deaths — another crucial metric ministers watch — have plateaued at around 20 per day in England and Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Dame Jenny appealed to the ‘nearly 20 per cent of the 75-plus year-old group’ who have not yet had their spring booster to come forward.
Meanwhile, the interim chief executive of NHS Providers, the membership organisation for NHS hospital, mental health, community and ambulance services, said there is no room for complacency.
Saffron Cordery said: ‘Trust leaders know they are in for a bumpy ride over the coming months as they tackle new and unpredictable variants of Covid alongside grappling with seasonal flu pressures which may hit us earlier than usual this year.
‘The policy of living with Covid does not mean Covid has gone away.
‘The latest data shows we cannot afford to be complacent with currently small but concerning increases over the past week in the number of patients both being admitted to hospital with Covid-19 and those needing a ventilator.
‘Warnings from Dr Jenny Harries today that community infection rates and hospital admissions are expected to rise further is concerning.
‘Waves of Covid and flu will put additional pressure on stretched NHS staff and services and their efforts to tackle waiting lists, deliver efficiencies and transform the NHS, as well as on our hard-pressed colleagues in social care.’
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