Kramatorsk: Ukraine’s heroics in fighting off a Russian invasion have captured our attention but what many fail to grasp is that the nation will lose this war unless something changes.
Despite scenes of people fleeing Kyiv, the capital is expected to hold out against Russian advances for a while longer. Putin’s troops’ real gains are elsewhere. Credit:Felipe Dana/ AP
None of this is to say that Russian President Vladimir Putin will win. The Russian economy is in ruins and what many thought would be a three-day operation to conquer the capital, Kyiv, is now a war entering its fourth week. Putin’s military misadventure is likely to rival Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan and America’s forays in the Middle East and Vietnam in terms of disastrous interventions.
But we must be more clear-eyed about what lies ahead for the Ukrainians, otherwise their gallant fight will come to nothing.
Having spent more than two weeks in Ukraine covering the invasion, I’m here to tell you that Russia is getting over its initial logistical problems and is starting to methodically put in place a proper plan to encircle Ukraine’s biggest cities. In the absence of some kind of intervention, miraculous diplomatic breakthrough or outright capitulation by Putin, Russian soldiers will eventually overwhelm the Ukrainians.
It is tempting to report that the heroes will prevail over the aggressor. But I can’t.
There is no doubt that the invasion has taught the West a lot about how to fight a 21st century war.
Firstly, Ukraine’s resistance has shown that a determined army can fend off a much more powerful invading force for weeks, probably months. It would have made China think twice about the prospect of a quick, pain-free invasion of Taiwan any time soon.
Secondly, the US and its allies are finally competing with Russia and China in the realm of information warfare. The real-time declassification of Western intelligence about the build-up of Russian troops may have delayed the invasion by a few weeks, buying Ukraine precious time to prepare its defences.
It’s also been the first war where our impressions have been dominated by social media footage. Videos and photos showing hungry Russian soldiers robbing grocery stores, Ukrainian tractors carrying Russian tanks and defiant Snake Island soldiers have gone viral. Not all of it has been real. A deluge of pro-Ukrainian memes mocking Russian troops and disparaging Putin have been shared endlessly.
But meme warfare isn’t the battlefield that counts. There is the real one, and it is looking increasingly grim.
While the determination of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians is something to behold, and Russia’s original attack on Kyiv was chaotic, the situation on the ground is getting worse.
Natali Sevriukova, outside her home in Kyiv after a rocket attack on the second day of the invasion. Credit:AP
Let’s assume for a minute there is no major diplomatic breakthrough or change in the way Western countries are supporting Ukraine.
Kyiv is still probably weeks away from being encircled, as Ukrainian troops continue to put up a well-planned resistance. A 64-kilometre Russian convoy may have been broke up and redeployed, but intense fighting in the settlements to the west of the city have so far failed to yield any significant gains for either side. This could lead to a long, drawn-out battle with thousands of casualties.
The significant advances are occurring elsewhere.
The southern city of Mariupol has been surrounded and cut off from food, power and water for weeks and it could fall any day. Once Russia captures the key port city, it will then have a land bridge from Crimea in the south to the separatist-controlled regions of Luhansk and Donetsk along the Russian border.
An explosion is seen in an apartment building in Mariupol, a city besieged, bombarded and isolated by the Russians. Credit:AP
In the east, where the government has been pitted against Kremlin-backed separatists for eight years, Ukrainian soldiers are so far holding the line but it’s tenuous. Cities in the Donbas have been battered in recent days by Russian airstrikes, while soldiers are exchanging fire every day.
Should the Russians break through here and in Mariupol, they will open a three-pronged line of attack from the south, north and east and it will only be a matter of time before the two biggest cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv fall.
We have all been inspired by Ukraine’s resistance, but we need to start facing the cold, hard truth. We must be clear-eyed about what Ukrainians face.
Members of a Territorial Defence unit play checkers with molotov cocktails while guarding a barricade after curfew on the outskirts of eastern Kyiv.Credit:Chris McGrath/Getty Images
I am not preaching fatalism, but instead a conversation about what happens next or what needs to happen now to prevent what seems inevitable.
Russia’s military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is roughly eight times the size of Ukraine’s, and if the war continues at this pace, it will eventually overwhelm its neighbour.
Yes, Russia will be dealing with a daily urban insurrection and it will be a disaster for Putin. The U estimated that up to 4,000 Russian troops had been killed by March 9 – the Ukrainian Defence Ministry’s estimates are much higher – and whatever the true toll, it is likely to skyrocket if Putin attempts any kind of ongoing occupation.
But it will also be a disaster for Ukrainians, as it was for the Afghans and Vietnamese before them.
Nobody wins.
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