BBC Weather: Changeable conditions to hit UK
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Early indicators show there is a likelihood of snowfall in the first weeks of November across some parts of Britain. The Met Office is forecasting more ‘settled’ conditions during the second week of the new month, which may increase the chances of plummeting temperatures and overnight frosts. It will be a big contrast to the mild October many are experiencing, with Halloween set to retain a mercury of around 18C. Despite the warmer autumnal feel, there has been a real mixture of rain, sun and even thunderstorms – which is relatively late in the year for such a weather event in the UK.
But in the leading forecaster’s long range outlook for the start of November, published on Sunday, October 23, experts believe there is some snowfall to come down with showers in northern and western areas of the UK.
This, it’s assumed, will partly refer to Scotland but there has been no further clarification over exact locations at this early stage. It says in full: “Unsettled conditions are expected to continue at first, with further heavy rain possible, particularly in the south.
“An increasing chance of settled weather remains during the second week of November, bringing a potential for colder, drier weather especially for the north and west.
“This will likely bring a risk of chilly nights with mist, frost and fog in places, with some snow expected to fall in any showers in northern and western areas.”
With long range forecasts, the confidence levels are not always as precise as those looking at weather patterns in the preceeding hours or days – but even a spokesman for the Met Office has refused to rule out a dusting of snow next month.
Speaking exclusively to Express.co.uk, Stephen Dixon from the Met Office said: “There’s a chance of some snow through November for northwestern parts of the UK.
“This isn’t usual for this time of year and the majority of any snow is most likely to fall over the Scottish mountains. It’s not possible at this range to talk about any specific amounts, although there aren’t currently any signals that deviate hugely from the average for the time of year.
“To put it in perspective, on average, Scotland reports 1.5 days of snow lying in November. Obviously, the stations in the higher ground see more, while those in the lower ground see fewer days of snow lying in the month.”
Independent forecaster Jim Dale, from British Weather Services, said some snowfall was also on his radar – but that only “bits and pieces of snow” would be seen on the Scottish Highlands, with “nothing more yet” showing.
This brutally cold front, which is set to make an appearance with or without snow in November, will come after a short, sharp heat burst over this week and into next according to NetWeather’s senior forecaster, Jo Farrow.
She said: “The south to south-westerly flow will continue to feed warm air over the UK and with some sunshine, it will feel pleasant and not really like late October.
“There will be bands of rain and heavy showers working their way northwards linked to various low pressures which will sit out in the Atlantic and make our weather changeable.”
Ms Farrow said that in the south east the mercury may even push up to 20C, which is noticeably warm for the time of year – but that this pleasant weather system will eventually cease as the second-to-last month arrives.
She added: “The ECM model shows high pressure building over France and England by Tuesday or Wednesday next week which would settle the weather down finally. The GFS has a significant low pressure to the west of Ireland by Tuesday, November 1 which looks to keep things more unsettled.
“Let’s enjoy the strangely warm October air whilst we can, it saves putting on the heating. There might be snow on the Scottish mountains by Bonfire Night.”
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