Just when you think you might have a handle on Oscar predictions, Anthony Hopkins goes and beats Chadwick Boseman. When it comes to the Academy Awards, it’s apparent that chaos often reigns supreme.
This year's nominations are being handed out Tuesday morning as Hollywood is still crawling back to normal, though this road to the Oscars (airing March 27 on ABC) is bumpy for all sorts of reasons. Going forward, there will be a 10-film best picture contingent, after several years where that was the max but the field typically hovered between eight and nine titles. Not that there's anything resembling a front-runner, even after the various guilds have weighed in with their nominations.
The Golden Globes happened, though since they were announced quietly via news release and social media rather than a glitzy NBC telecast, no one really knows if they’ll matter at all. And another year when COVID-19-wary audiences haven’t fully returned to theaters continues to add unpredictability.
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But where would the fun be if any of this made sense? We're embracing the mayhem and separating the potential contenders from the pretenders in the six major Oscar categories:
Best picture
The best: Always look to the producers first, since only one film (2021's "The Father") in the past three years missed out on a Producers Guild nomination but still vied for the top prize. The coming-of-age dramas "Belfast" and "Licorice Pizza," Western tale "The Power of the Dog," musical redo "West Side Story" and sci-fi epic "Dune" are pretty much locks with PGA and Directors Guild nods. The sports biopic "King Richard," disaster satire "Don't Look Up" and inclusive tearjerker "CODA" also have built a strong resume, with PGA and Screen Actors Guild honors in their favor.
The rest: With PGA and Writers Guild nods, the "I Love Lucy" biopic "Being the Ricardos" and musical "tick, tick … BOOM!" have the strongest shot at the remaining two slots. If one or both of them falters, soapy historical drama "House of Gucci" has a decent chance with a SAG cast nomination to its credit, oddball comedy "The French Dispatch" and noir remake "Nightmare Alley" each have WGA nominations, Shakespeare adaptation "The Tragedy of Macbeth" might sneak in, or maybe Oscar voters veer populist and embrace "Spider-Man: No Way Home."
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Actor
The best: Prepare for Will Smith ("King Richard") versus Denzel Washington ("Tragedy of Macbeth"), Round 2. They both have SAG nominations, as do Javier Bardem ("Being the Ricardos"), Benedict Cumberbatch ("Power of the Dog") and Andrew Garfield ("tick, tick … BOOM!").
The rest: Last year marked the first time since 2010 that Oscars and SAG overlapped exactly for their lead actor contingents. But if, say, Garfield doesn't benefit from "BOOM!" being a best picture contender or Washington falls prey to a lack of "Macbeth" love, waiting in the wings are Critics Choice nominees Peter Dinklage ("Cyrano") and Nicolas Cage ("Pig"), Hollywood son Cooper Hoffman ("Licorice Pizza"), "Nightmare Alley" main man Bradley Cooper (though he has a stronger chance for a supporting actor nod with "Licorice Pizza") and Oscar fave Leonardo DiCaprio ("Don't Look Up").
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Actress
The best: Filled with arguably the most contenders, this is also the most volatile category of the lot (and most entertaining if you like tumult). Kristen Stewart ("Spencer") seemed to be cruising to a nomination, if not a win, but was shut out of first SAGs and now the British Academy of Film Television and Arts. She seems to be on the outside looking in, while Globe winner Nicole Kidman is benefiting from some late "Being the Ricardos" momentum. She stands to gain an Oscar berth – which would be her fifth overall – from a SAG nomination, as does Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter"), Lady Gaga ("House of Gucci") and Jennifer Hudson ("Respect"), whose work as Aretha Franklin is garnering some eleventh-hour respect.
The rest: There's a bunch in the tussle for that last remaining slot, including Stewart and SAG nominee Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye"), another early favorite who fell off the radar. Add in Globe winner Rachel Zegler ("West Side Story"), perennial contender Frances McDormand ("Tragedy of Macbeth"), Penelope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers"), plus newcomers Emilia Jones ("CODA") and Alana Haim ("Licorice Pizza"), and things could get quite interesting.
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Supporting actor
The best: At least one thespian every awards cycle runs the table toward Oscar glory (for example, Daniel Kaluuya in 2021), and 2022 seems to be the year of Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog"), with a Globe win and SAG, Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations. He's a shoo-in for a nomination alongside Troy Kotsur, a fellow BAFTA and Critics Choice nominee riding a wave of support for his heartfelt "CODA" performance.
The rest: Ben Affleck ("The Tender Bar") scored SAG and Globe nods so he has a chance to break into the competition, as do a pair of Critics Choice nominees – and Oscar winners – J.K. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos") and Jared Leto ("House of Gucci"). Bradley Cooper ("Licorice Pizza") looms as a former nominee in a scene-stealing role, and "Belfast" could place one (but probably not both) of its dynamic duo in the category: Ciaran Hinds or Jamie Dornan.
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Supporting actress
The best: Like Smit-McPhee, Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story") is dancing all over the competition and might be bound for Oscar history: She'd be the first queer woman of color to win an Academy Award. With a Globe win as well as SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice nods, DeBose seems assured to be there Oscar night and most likely to join her are fellow SAG, Globe and Critics Choice nominees Caitriona Balfe ("Belfast") and Kirsten Dunst ("The Power of the Dog").
The rest: Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard") and Ruth Negga ("Passing") are strong contenders to fill one or both of those slots with their Globe and Critics Choice accolades, with a possibility of SAG nominee Cate Blanchett ("Nightmare Alley") taking that final spot. There's not a lot of room for dark horses, though Ann Dowd gives a highly emotional performance in "Mass" – and has never received an Oscar nomination – while Rita Moreno ("West Side Story") would be a sentimental favorite.
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Director
The best: This category is the opposite of chaos since usually, 4 out of the 5 filmmaker nominees match up with the DGA field. So that fun fact bodes well for Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza"), Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast"), Jane Campion ("The Power of the Dog"), Steven Spielberg ("West Side Story") and Denis Villeneuve ("Dune").
The rest: It's been 12 years since Oscars and DGA overlapped exactly, though all five of the above are well-known, respected names. Considering the best picture contenders, possibilities who could slide in are Adam McKay ("Don't Look Up"), Sian Heder ("CODA") and Guillermo del Toro ("Nightmare Alley"). Don't count out Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, the Japanese director of the critically acclaimed "Drive My Car," or Joel Coen, one-half of the Oscar-winning Coen Brothers duo who went solo for "Tragedy of Macbeth."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Oscar nominations predicted: Who's in for sure, who may get snubbed
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