Ukraine invasion to mark end of 'arrogant' Putin says Ben Wallace
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Yesterday, Putin announced that the invasion of Ukraine would cease “in a moment” if Ukraine agreed to several extreme demands. These included ceasing military action, acknowledging Crimea as Russian territory, and recognising the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as independent territories.
The move was widely regarded as an abrupt U-turn amid an invasion that was initially intended to be a “lightning war” in which Russia would flex its superior military might to meet a quick end for Ukraine.
Honorary professor at the University College London School of Slavonic and East European Studies, and author of We Need To Talk About Putin, Mark Galeotti has described how Putin has got to the point where he would so abruptly consider a peace treaty.
Writing for the Mail, Mr Galeotti describes how we can see that Putin’s plan to claim Kyiv within two days and the rest of Ukraine within two weeks has descended into a “nightmare”.
He claimed: “The evidence is everywhere: a massive convoy bogged down in the mud, smoking hulks of aircraft shot down by Ukrainian forces, and Russian artillery resorting to shelling apartment blocks and hospitals.
“Meanwhile, the invaders have even taken to laying landmines in humanitarian corridors and gunning down fleeing families – it is frightened and demoralised soldiers, unable to prevail on the battlefield, who commit such crimes.”
Mr Galeotti goes on to argue that while Russia’s military may on the face of it appear much stronger – with ten times the expenditure and nearly doubling Ukraine’s number of troops – the reality is much more nuanced.
He argues that despite the numbers advantage, Russian forces are 40 percent conscripts, with little training.
Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, not only have experience gained from battles in Donetsk and Lugansk in 2014, but are also far more motivated thanks to “the leadership of their charismatic president Volodymyr Zelensky.”
He adds: “While Putin has the advantage in military hardware, superior firepower does not always win the day, as we have seen in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
“What really proves decisive in wars is the will to win: the victor is the one who exhausts the other side, sapping their morale to the point that they can no longer resist.”
The Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain’s most senior military officer, said that a Russian takeover of Ukraine was not inevitable.
He added: “’Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response.”
Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews Phillips O’Brien similarly analysed the Russian military efforts in a Twitter thread, adding that despite Russia’s more expensive military, issues of supply chains were preventing Putin’s forces from bringing their advantages to bear.
Mr Galeotti went on to point out that a key difference between the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and this year’s invasion of Ukraine is that the former already had a strong Russian-identifying population.
The same cannot be said of Ukraine and “has no desire to be gobbled up by an economically stagnant, corrupt old Russian bear”.
He added: “Ukraine’s courageous resistance has shocked [Putin], as has the reaction of the Western powers, which belatedly discovered their backbones and imposed sanctions that have sparked an economic crisis in Russia, which will undermine its military effort.”
He concludes, therefore, that Putin’s offer of a peace deal, while seemingly absurd, may be a genuine one.
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However, whether or not Ukraine will accept it is another matter entirely.
Mr Galeotti argued: “If Putin wants to hold on to the whole of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, that is unthinkable.
“People there are fighting bravely to resist the Russians. They will not want to be ruled by them.
“If Ukraine agrees to Putin’s conditions, it is resigning itself to never joining Nato’s protective umbrella and laying itself open to the possibility that Putin could regroup and try again in a few years’ time.
“No one could blame Ukraine if they decided to accept the offer in order to save civilian lives. But it would be a bitter pill, and from what we have seen of Zelensky and his courageous citizens they will not want to swallow it.”
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