Vladimir Putin’s Russian government is on the brink, secret internal Russian analysis has suggested.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), headed by spymaster Major-General Kyrylo Budanov, has access a Russian study conducted by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD).
The report, Mr Budanov said, has suggested the country is primed for a civil war which could tear the country apart.
The MVD found Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group “March of Justice” rebellion last month attracted sizeable public support.
Speaking to the Times, the spymaster claimed his agency accessed the report following the group’s march on Moscow, and that it includes several stunning insights.
Mr Budanov said the MVD has used new-generation spyware to keep a close eye on members of the public while enforcing the law across Russia.
From June 24 to 25, he said the organisation discovered majority support for Prigozhin in 17 of Russia’s 46 regions.
Mr Budanov warned that the findings suggest a small internal spark could set the Russian government alight.
He said: “The situation is indicating exactly what our service has been talking about: that the Russian Federation is on the edge of the civil war.
“There needs to be a small internal ‘affair’, and the internal conflict will be intensified.”
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The report found that Putin retained support from the majority of regions, but only four more than Prigozhin at 21.
While the figures don’t necessarily translate into Russian citizens willing to take up arms, especially with an opponent and would-be leader like Prigozhin absent, Mr Budanov said they indicate Russian society is “torn into two pieces”.
Prigozhin is mostly out of the picture for now, but his influence remains, with he and his group having retained public support.
A poll from the Russian Field polling centre found that 29 percent of respondents still support Prigozhin’s actions following the coup.
And on Monday, July 3, Prigozhin appeared to surface in a Telegram video recording teasing a future for the Wagner PMC.
The unverified recording of a man with a voice similar to the mercenary chief said “in the near future,” people would see “our next victories at the front”.
The recording added: “I want you to understand that our ‘March of Justice’ was aimed at fighting traitors and mobilizing our society. And I think we have achieved a lot of it.”
“Today more than ever we need your support. Thank you for that.”
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