Nine of the last 12 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. It's the most valuable position in football and has become the default for voters when there isn't a clear-cut choice. Quarterbacks make the most money, soak in the credit for wins, and their reputations ride on the backs of fifty-two other teammates.
Super Bowl LVI features two quarterbacks whose journeys could not be more different. After suffering through 12 seasons in Detroit, Matt Stafford orchestrated his exit to Sean McVay's high-octane offense in Los Angeles. The gamble paid off as the veteran is finally getting his opportunity to play for the Lombardi Trophy.
Bengal's quarterback Joe Burrow skipped the rebuilding process in Cincinnati. After a 4-11-1 debut season, the charismatic quarterback carried his struggling franchise to the promised land in only his second season. In a matchup between the veteran you can't help but root for and the man who could be the next Tom Brady, it's easy to see why these two are the odds-on favorites for Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM.
If you are wired like I am, the +115 (Stafford) or +210 payout that each quarterback carries isn't enough to fully satisfy your appetite for an MVP bet. I plan to place a wager on one of the quarterbacks to supplement my bet on the winning side, but I will also sprinkle a reduced stake on a long shot. Here are three players that I think have a path to the MVP. Each will provide a significantly larger payout if they outshine the quarterbacks in Super Bowl LVI.
Odell Beckham Jr. +2500
Beckham's revitalized career in L.A. after his escape from Cleveland will get plenty of coverage in the next two weeks. There is little doubt that he has been a huge part of the Rams' ability to hit another offensive gear in the postseason. His nine-reception, 113-yard performance in the NFC championship game would qualify for an MVP performance. The key is outgaining his teammate, who happens to be the NFL's best receiver.
The Bengals' defense will likely employ similar coverage concepts they used against the Chiefs on another high-powered offense, and Cooper Kupp will certainly garner the bulk of the attention. Cincinnati's secondary ranks sixth in DVOA vs. opposing No.1 receivers while ranking fifth-worst against the team's No. 2 option. Tyreek Hill was shut out in the second half of the AFC championship game, so we could see things open up for Odell. With 19 targets over the last two games, there is value considering the anticipated volume for Beckham at 25-to-1.
Von Miller +5000
Just six years ago, Miller made a profound enough impact on Super Bowl 50 to become only the 10th defensive player to win the award. According to ESPN's Next Gen Stats, the Rams are first in pass rush win rate while the Bengals are 30th in pass block win rate. It's a massive advantage for L.A.'s defensive front. My first thought when the Rams' confetti hit the floor was that Aaron Donald was going to feast on the Bengals' offensive line. That may very well become a reality, but it's also a possibility that Miller gets the sacks off Donald's pressure. Burrow showed the ability to scramble and make the first defender miss this postseason. Donald might do the most damage, but voters aren't handing over the hardware for pressure. Miller seems like a long shot worth backing at 50-to-1 odds.
Vonn Bell +15000
First things first, this bet is priced at 150-to-1 for a reason. The implied probability of +15000 odds is 0.66%. Keep that in mind when sizing this wager. If Joe Burrow is hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, it's very likely he will be named Super Bowl MVP. However, there is still a path where a guy like Vonn Bell can steal the award with a multi-interception game.
The Bengals defense picked off Ryan Tannehill three times and Patrick Mahomes twice. Stafford's most frustrating weakness is his propensity to throw interceptions. He finished the regular season with three multi-interceptions games and should have had another in the NFC championship game if it weren't for 49ers defensive back Jaquiski Tartt's surprising drop. If a Bengal besides Burrow is going to win MVP, it's going to be Stafford who gives it to him.
Stats provided by espn.com and football outsiders.
Source: Read Full Article
