Putin’s other battle… for influence in Africa: How Kremlin’s shady meddling is bearing fruit after Russian flag-waving protesters took to the streets in Niger to back a coup against the government and its Western allies
‘Down with France, long live Putin’: That was the message scrawled on banners by protesters waving the Russian flag in Niger after a coup toppled the government last week.
For Western forces in the country – including the French and Americans – it was a moment of deja vu because, just a year earlier, almost the exact same scene played out around them in neighbouring Mali.
In fact, four countries in the Sahel region – a strip of land just below the Sahara desert – have now kicked out their governments and Western-backed security forces in favour of military juntas that are either openly allied to or being wooed by Russia.
Standing against them is the ever-shrinking ECOWAS alliance, led by Nigeria, who are pledged to spread democracy and have now threatened war against Niger’s ruling cabal.
Nigeriens, some holding Russian flags, participate in a march called by supporters of coup leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani in Niamey, Niger, Sunday, July 30, 2023
PMC Wagner Group has a presence spread out across Russian-influenced African nations
Nigeriens participate in a march called by supporters of coup leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani in Niamey, July 30, 2023. The closest sign reads: ‘Down with France. Long live Putin!’
Protesters hold an anti-France placard reading ‘France: leave Africa’ and waving the flag of Russia during a demonstration on independence day in Niamey on August 3, 2023
Africa is fast-emerging as a second front in Putin’s war against the West and, unlike the conflict in Ukraine, this is one that Moscow is winning hands down.
‘The war in Ukraine clearly has not diminished Russia’s desire to act opportunistically, including in Africa,’ researchers from US think-tank Carnegie Endowment for Global Peace wrote earlier this year.
READ MORE: Fears for Britons trapped in Niger as UK orders partial evacuation of embassy after French embassy was torn apart by rioters: War-torn nation in chaos as politicians stoned and cars torched amid brutal military coup
‘In fact, the Vladimir Putin regime’s break with the West is empowering Moscow’s recent outreach to several parts of the continent…
‘Working with foreign partners in Africa to counter what [Russia] called ‘European colonialism’ is officially part of Russia’s foreign policy.
‘[Russia’s] language is blatantly self-serving, but many in the region are receptive to such narratives because of frustration with failed policies from the West.’
According to research by the African Centre, Russia has sought influence in almost two dozen countries from Algeria to Angola using a heady mix of political interference, disinformation campaigns, and military intervention.
That has won the Kremlin some powerful allies, such as South Africa which was accused of shipping weapons to Russia back in May.
But it is in northern Africa, and in particular the Sahel, where Russia has become most influential thanks to the presence of the Wagner Group.
Wagner, the army-for-hire led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has deployed thousands of mercenaries to the region starting in 2017 and continuing to this day.
Prigozhin has already begun courting Niger’s new junta having sent 2,000 men to Mali, and is also courting Burkina Faso.
But his main base of operations is in Sudan – where vicious in-fighting between the military recently broke out – with more troops in Libya and the Central African Republic.
Ostensibly sent to fight groups such as ISIS, research shows Wagner has instead propped up fragile regimes using terrifying levels of violence against civilians and political opponents.
In return, the group has been given licence to plunder natural resources such as gold, diamonds, and timber – and may now have its eye on Niger’s uranium mines.
All of which has made hundreds of millions of dollars for Prigozhin, while giving Moscow effective control over states in a strategically important region.
Wagner PMC mercenaries have played a key role in Putin’s devastating invasion of Ukraine
Supporters of Niger’s ruling junta hold a Russian flag at the start of a protest called to fight for the country’s freedom and push back against foreign interference in Niamey, August 3, 2023
Men hold a child dressed in military uniform as they gather with thousands of anti-sanctions protestors in support of the putschist soldiers in the capital Niamey, Niger August 3, 2023
As researchers for the London School of Economics noted: ‘A prime example of Russian state capture in Africa is the Central African Republic (CAR).
‘President Faustin-Archange Touadéra brokered a deal with Russia for arms, mercenaries and a protection force in return for access to CAR diamond and gold mines.
‘A Russian, Valery Zakharov, is now the country’s national security advisor.
‘Once Russia gained control of the state, CAR’s longtime supporter, France, was compelled to pull out, further advancing Moscow’s geostrategic interests.’
Meanwhile the ECOWAS alliance is on the back foot – having been forced to expel Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger over the coups – while the West’s military presence is shrinking fast.
Western deployments to Africa go back decades and, in the case of France, to the time of empire when many of the countries in the Sahel were its colonial territories.
That meant, after achieving independence, many of those same countries turned to France and its allies to provide security for their fledgling governments.
But the history of colonialism and, more recently, failed military operations have seen relations deteriorate rapidly.
France’s last major deployment to the Sahel, Operation Barkhane, began in 2014 with the ambitious aim of pushing Jihadist groups out of a swathe of Sahel territory.
But the operation dragged on for years, failed to provide security for local people, and prompted a backlash against Western forces.
Three of the original five countries the mission was supposed to protect have since staged coups – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
Meanwhile Chad, which was the base of operations for Barkhane, saw an attempted coup in 2021 which leaked US intelligence suggests was assisted by Wagner.
And the problem looks set to get worse as Putin, isolated on the world stage thanks to the Ukraine war, is likely to turn to Africa for political support in his war against the West.
‘France must leave,’ reads one placard, pictured during a demonstration in Niamey, August 3
Russian flags have been pictured throughout the Niger coup, with many Nigeriens resentful towards western powers who some see as embarking on another neocolonial project
Meanwhile Prigozhin, who recently withdrew from the Ukraine war and attempted another coup against Russia’s own military, has said Africa will be his focus going forwards.
‘Russia has invested minimal time and funding in Africa, but it is still steadily making inroads in various countries,’ the Carnegie Institute added.
‘It has had most success in internationally isolated and deeply troubled Sahelian states, and it has struggled to make inroads in several African democracies.
‘Nevertheless, Moscow has proven that it knows how to take advantage of governance shortfalls, instability, and security vacuums in Africa.’
The researchers continued: ‘The most important issue for the region’s population is not Russia but the desire for improved security, economic, and social conditions.
‘The Wagner Group may offer an easy fix and help individual regimes consolidate power.
‘However, addressing the true causes of regional instability—bad governance, human suffering, the devastating impacts of climate change, and armed jihadist groups—requires a well-resourced, multilateral solution.’
That may provide an opportunity for Western nations to out-manoeuvre Moscow and win back influence in the region.
But unless they can overcome past grievances and put together a plan fast, they may find that Russia and its proxies are already too deeply embedded to displace.
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