Professor lockdown Neil Ferguson says it’s ‘unlikely’ Britain will need another lockdown like the Netherlands because the UK opened up and had a Covid ‘exit wave’ in summer… but warns cases could still rise in November
- The Sage member said Britain Covid epidemic is ‘different’ from the Netherlands
- ‘Professor Lockdown’ said the UK’s wave of infections looks to be ‘peetering out’
- The prediction comes a day after Boris Johnson warned over rising infections
- Department of Health reported another 40,375 infections across UK over the past 24 hours, up 19% in week
- Second day in row that cases have risen, bringing abrupt end to nearly a fortnight of falling infection figures
- Rebounding numbers came as PM pointed to crisis in EU as sign of what’s to come if Brits don’t get boosters
Professor Lockdown Neil Ferguson has said that a Netherlands-style lockdown is ‘unlikely’ in Britain despite an ‘uptick’ in Covid cases in the UK.
The member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said Britain’s situation is different from other European nations as the wave of infections seems to be peetering out.
The professor at Imperial College London told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘We’ve had two or three weeks of declining cases and admission to hospitals – that may be petering out, it is too early to say.
‘There is a hint of an uptick in the last few days.
‘But we are in quite a different situation from those European countries you are talking about (the Netherlands, Germany).
‘We’ve had very high case numbers – between 30,000 and 50,000 a day – really for the last four months, since the beginning of July.
‘That has obviously had some downsides. It has also paradoxically had an upside of boosting the immunity of the population compared with countries like Germany, the Netherlands and France, which have had much lower case numbers and are only now seeing an uptick.’
The epidemiologist, whose modelling helped instigate the first lockdown last year, said he hopes the UK can ‘avoid’ returning to social distancing restrictions this winter.
He said: ‘I think it is unlikely we will get anything close to what we had last year, that catastrophic winter wave.
‘We might see slow increases as we did in October, for instance, but not anything as rapid as we saw last year.
‘We can’t be complacent, but at the moment I don’t think we’ll be in a situation the Netherlands is coming into where they really do need to get on top of rising case numbers using social distancing.
‘I very much hope we can avoid that in this country.’
The expert also said modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has indicated that rolling out booster vaccinations to the ‘younger age groups’ once the most vulnerable have been jabbed could help ‘drive down transmission to low levels’ in Britain.
The calmer outlook comes a day after Britain’s daily Covid cases rose by nearly a fifth and Boris Johnson used Europe’s soaring epidemic as a warning of what’s to come if Britons don’t get their booster vaccines.
The Department of Health reported another 40,375 infections across the UK on Friday, marking a rise of 19 per cent compared to a week before.
It is the second day in a row that cases have risen week-on-week and brings an abrupt end to nearly a fortnight of falling infection numbers.
The rebounding figures came moments after the Prime Minister pointed to outbreaks in Europe and warned there were ‘storm clouds gathering over the continent’ that could hit Britain next.
Austria will become the first Western European country to impose a lockdown since the summer from Monday, with unvaccinated people in the two worst-hit regions subjected to restrictions again. The Netherlands is also reintroducing a 7pm curfew on bars, restaurants and other amenities from Saturday.
‘I’ve got to be absolutely frank with people, we’ve been here before – and we remember what happens when a wave starts rolling in,’ Mr Johnson said during a visit to a pharmacy in South London.
The PM, who is currently embroiled in a Tory sleaze row, warned that Britain’s fate this winter hinges on how many people get their boosters. ‘What I’m saying today is the urgency of getting that booster jab is more evident than ever,’ he said.
‘If you can get it, it’s a great thing, the levels of protection it gives you are terrific and so over-50s, who we’re calling forward, should come and get it.’
But he added: ‘What I’m also saying is that if we don’t do it fast enough, we can see the potential risks to the state of the pandemic in what’s happening in other parts of Europe.’
However, experts told MailOnline the UK’s third wave peaked months ahead of Europe’s. Cambridge University epidemiologist Dr Raghib Ali said: ‘Britain could well suffer a spike this winter, but it won’t be because of imported cases from Europe, like in previous waves.’
Meanwhile, latest hospital data shows there were 993 Covid admissions on November 8 which was 7 per cent lower than the figure the previous week.
Another 145 coronavirus deaths were also registered today in a 25 per cent decrease compared to the toll last Friday. Hospitalisations and deaths — which are both lagging indicators — have been falling for seven and four days in a row, respectively.
Despite the falling hospital numbers, Independent SAGE yesterday demanded the Government activates its winter ‘Plan B’ to protect the NHS.
The pressure group, made up of eminent experts who’ve pushed for an Australian-style virus elimination strategy, said compulsory masks and widespread WFH were ‘urgently’ needed to ‘save the NHS and Christmas’.
There are questions about whether the current Covid situation is to blame for the NHS crisis, given that there are half as many Covid inpatients now than this time last year (shown)
The group — which includes a former Government chief scientific adviser, a Communist Party member and some of No10’s own scientists — claimed the ‘very high levels of Covid’ were putting ‘extreme pressure’ on the health service.
Independent Sage’s call to action comes after a swathe of shocking statistics laid bare the extent of the crisis within the NHS, with waiting lists for routine care soaring to another high and 999 calls and ambulance waits hitting record levels.
Doctors said the NHS was being brought ‘to its knees’ with patients being left to die in the back of ambulances and waiting rooms because staff are so busy.
But other experts argue the current Covid situation doesn’t justify moving to Plan B, given that admissions for the virus have fallen for nearly a week straight and are projected to fall even more in the coming weeks.
Covid cases have also been trending down since October 24, in line with the country’s major surveillance study which found a 16 per cent weekly fall last week, and death rates have also started to follow suit.
‘The Government needs to urgently bring in Plan B… The pressure on the NHS is extreme and increasing, the backlog of treatment is at a record high, it needs to act now,’ Independent Sage said.
‘Most importantly, working from home where possible and mandated facemasks in indoor spaces are needed. We also believe additional protective measures should be brought in, including ensuring good ventilation in schools and other public spaces and financial support for self-isolation.’
Admissions for the virus have fallen for nearly a week straight (shown) with around 800 per day on average now compared to almost 1,600 in November 2020
The NHS waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has reached 5.83million, official data revealed on Thursday, marking the eleventh month in a row that the figure has hit a record high. Some 1.6million more Britons were waiting for elective surgery — such as hip and keen operations — at the end of September compared to the start of the pandemic
Despite the total A&E admissions in England being just two per cent more than one month earlier and equal to the number of people who came forward during the same month in 2019, 7,059 patients were forced to wait more than 12 hours to be seen at A&E. The record-high figure is 40 per cent more than the 5,024 forced to wait that long one month earlier. It is also five times bigger than in September 2020 and ten times more than the same month in 2019
The NHS has long struggled to meet its recommended ambulance response times for Category 2 incidents which include medical emergencies such as strokes and severe burns but the last few months months have seen unprecedented rise with patients waiting nearly an hour on average for an ambulance after calling 99.
A record number of 999 calls were made in England in October with 1,012,143 urgent calls for medical help made. But the time it took answer these calls also increased to a record 56 seconds
No10 has said it will only revert to its winter Covid ‘Plan B’ strategy if the NHS faces ‘unsustainable’ pressure, which ministers argue is not the case yet despite health leaders insisting otherwise.
Cambridge University epidemiologist Dr Raghib Ali, who is also an NHS consultant in acute medicine, said the current NHS crisis was not the result of Covid but a ‘chronic staffing shortage’.
He said reverting to Plan B now would not solve the problem, adding: ‘Although there has often been too much alarmism, this is a genuine problem which is harming many patients… [but] there is no easy short-term solution.’
Independent Sage’s Professor Susan Michie, a behavioural expert who also sits on the Government’s official science panel SAGE, slammed Mr Johnson directly.
‘To save the NHS and Christmas, the Government needs to enable behaviours to get our high transmission rates down,’ she said. ‘The PM walking mask less round a hospital with vulnerable patients undermines that effort.’
Professor Michie, a member of Communist Party of Britain for more than 40 years, added: ‘Enabling behaviour change is everyone’s responsibility especially those in positions of authority and influence.
‘The PM walking mask-less round a hospital with vulnerable patients undermines the behaviours needed to keep us all safe.’
Mr Johnson was criticised this week after he was pictured walking through a hospital corridor without a mask in Northumberland on Monday – even though the NHS trust leapt to his defence and claimed he wore one in wards.
Dr Ali said the focus should be on the booster vaccines, which are proven to be highly effective at preventing hospital admissions, rather than masks which only slightly reduce transmission.
He added: ‘Of course there are many other things you can and should do to help yourself (and the pressure on NHS) by taking care of your health but most of these won’t impact in the very short-term hence my focus on the booster jabs which can reduce admissions by 80 per cent within two weeks.’
The demands come after monthly NHS England data published yesterday revealed that the NHS is facing a crisis even without a major surge in Covid.
The Office for National Statistics, which calculates case numbers based on thousands of random swab tests, found 925,400 people in the country were infected on any given day in the week ending November 6. The figure equates to one in 60 people having the virus and is 16.1 per cent lower than the estimated 1,103,300 cases one week earlier, when one in 50 people were infected
A record-high 5.83million patients are now on the NHS waiting list for routine treatment, with the mammoth toll having snowballed during the pandemic.
Army to continue supporting crisis-hit NHS Scotland after being called in in October
The Army will continue helping two health boards with acute services after their request for the assistance to be extended was approved by the Ministry of Defence.
Army personnel were called in to help NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Borders in October amid pressures on the health service.
A request by the health boards to extend the acute services Military Aid to the Civilian Authority (MACA) task, which was originally due to last until November 10, has now been approved by Ministry of Defence, the Army said.
In total 84 personnel will continue with the work, with 21 personnel in the Borders and 63 in Lanarkshire.
Their involvement is expected to continue until December 8 in the Borders and December 17 in Lanarkshire, with the timelines kept under regular review.
The Army is also supporting the Scottish Ambulance Service with non-emergency drivers and delivering testing through mobile units.
An Army statement said: ‘More than 450 Armed Forces personnel are supporting multiple MACA tasks in Scotland. These tasks fall under Operation Rescript, defence’s efforts to support the UK’s response to the pandemic which began in March 2020.
‘Defence have supported communities across the UK throughout the pandemic, from planning support alongside resilience teams and governments, to ambulance drivers and health care assistants in hospitals, as well as the vaccine rollout.
‘The Armed Forces stand ready to step up and support civil authorities, devolved nations and communities as required in the coming months where the requests meet the MACA principles.’
At the same time, the average ambulance response time for heart attack and stroke patients is now nearly an hour, which paramedics admitted is putting patients’ lives ‘at risk’.
And 999 response times for category two calls are now three times above the health service’s 18-minute safety target.
Doctors warned the grim performance figures were ‘concerning’ because winter pressures and staffing absences have yet to hit peak levels.
A poll of NHS bosses found nine in 10 felt the current situation — dealing with the pandemic-induced backlog and Covid — is ‘unsustainable’ and patient care is being compromised.
There have been reports of some elderly Brits having to wait up to 14 hours for an ambulance, and investigations are underway into the deaths of several patients in parked ambulances unable to handover patients to overwhelmed A&Es.
NHS England statistics reveal it took crews nearly 55 minutes to respond to Category 2 calls — including strokes, heart attacks and severe burns — in October, compared to the 18-minute target.
The most urgent incidents, which includes events such as cardiac arrests and life-threatening accidents, also saw record delays last month. Paramedics took, on average, nine minutes and 20 seconds to respond to Category 1 calls, well above the target of seven minutes.
Trade union GMB warned the ambulance wait times showed the NHS was at risk of moving from a winter crisis to a winter catastrophe.
Ambulance leaders described how they are facing the ‘highest level of emergency activity in history’ and raised concerns about the time lost to hospital handover delays.
It came as a poll for the NHS Confederation found that health leaders believe the pressure on the NHS is now at unsustainable levels and patient safety and care are being put at risk by staff shortages.
NHS leaders in England warned the health service has reached ‘tipping point’, with nearly nine in 10 (88 per cent) saying the demands on their organisation are unsustainable.
Almost the same number (87 per cent) said a lack of staffing in the NHS as a whole is putting patient safety and care at risk.
The survey of 451 leaders included those from hospitals, ambulance services, mental health providers, community services and primary care.
But Covid cases in England dropped by 16 per cent last week, leading to questions about the virus is truly behind the NHS pressure.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which calculates case numbers based on thousands of random swab tests, found 925,400 people in the country were infected on any given day in the week ending November 6.
No10’s top scientists tracking the R rate — which measures the speed the outbreak is growing at — estimated that it was between 0.8 and 1 in England. This suggests that for every ten people who have the virus, they are passing it on to between eight and 10 others
The figure equates to one in 60 people having the virus and is 16.1 per cent lower than the estimated 1,103,300 cases one week earlier, when one in 50 people were thought to be infected.
And cases appear to be dropping in all age groups, most notably among 11 to 16-year-olds, with 4.8 per cent thought to have the virus in the last week, compared to 7.5 in the previous seven days.
It comes as one expert said the drop has been triggered ‘almost entirely by the wall of immunity, rather than behavioural changes or restrictions’.
JVT says Covid crisis a ‘lot calmer’ after Easter… but other scientist warns of EIGHT years of misery
Britain’s Covid crisis is set to become ‘a lot calmer’ after Easter, Jonathan Van-Tam predicted today — but other scientists warned it could drag on another eight years.
England’s deputy chief medical officer warned there will be some ‘twists and bumps’ along the way and admitted that the situation was becoming harder to forecast.
But he told a medical conference today: ‘I think, generally speaking, waters will be quite a lot calmer after Easter.’
Professor Van-Tam warned this was dependent on the successful roll out of the booster doses, which are being offered to all over-50s.
His words were in stark contrast to eminent epidemiologist Professor Tim Spector, who warned that it could take years to become a manageable, seasonal virus.
‘We need to be thinking in terms of time scales — it is not in months, it is not by next Christmas, it is a question as to whether it will be three years or eight years,’ he said.
And separate data published on Thursday by the UK’s largest symptom-tracking study revealed cases fell by almost a fifth in the biggest weekly drop since the summer.
Meanwhile, Department for Health data yesterday showed Covid cases increased 14 per cent, marking the first rise in 10 days. But hospitalisations and deaths both fell week-on-week too.
There are about 6,800 Covid patients in English hospitals now compared to more than 12,000 at the same point last year.
Meanwhile, it emerged today that the Army will continue helping two health boards in Scotland with acute services after their request for the assistance to be extended was approved by the Ministry of Defence.
Army personnel were called in to help NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Borders in October amid pressures on the health service.
A request by the health boards to extend the acute services Military Aid to the Civilian Authority (MACA) task, which was originally due to last until November 10, has now been approved by Ministry of Defence, the Army said.
In total 84 personnel will continue with the work, with 21 personnel in the Borders and 63 in Lanarkshire.
Their involvement is expected to continue until December 8 in the Borders and December 17 in Lanarkshire, with the timelines kept under regular review.
The Army is also supporting the Scottish Ambulance Service with non-emergency drivers and delivering testing through mobile units.
An Army statement said: ‘More than 450 Armed Forces personnel are supporting multiple MACA tasks in Scotland. These tasks fall under Operation Rescript, defence’s efforts to support the UK’s response to the pandemic which began in March 2020.
‘Defence have supported communities across the UK throughout the pandemic, from planning support alongside resilience teams and governments, to ambulance drivers and health care assistants in hospitals, as well as the vaccine rollout.
‘The Armed Forces stand ready to step up and support civil authorities, devolved nations and communities as required in the coming months where the requests meet the MACA principles.’
Meanwhile, the latest daily coronavirus figures show Scotland recorded 17 Covid-linked deaths and 3,349 new cases in the past 24 hours.
It means the death toll under this daily measure – of people who first tested positive for the virus within the previous 28 days – is 9,375.
The daily test positivity rate was 9.8 per cent, up from 8.2 per cent the previous day, according to data published by the Scottish Government on Friday.
There were 759 people in hospital on Thursday with recently confirmed Covid-19, down nine, with 55 in intensive care, down five.
So far, 4,325,523 people have received their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccination and 3,922,893 have had their second.
Total size of England’s Covid outbreak SHRANK by 16% last week to below 1million, mass-testing study shows
England’s Covid outbreak shrank in size by 16 per cent last week, official figures revealed today as experts hailed the country’s ‘wall of immunity’ for keeping the virus at bay.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS), a Government agency which analyses tens of thousands of random tests to track the spread of the infection, estimated 925,400 people were infected on any given day in the week ending November 6.
It equates to one in 60 people being infected and is a marked drop on the calculation of 1,103,300 published last week, which had yet to indicate any downturn despite a swathe of separate data showing England’s outbreak was naturally retreating.
Cases appear to be dropping in all age groups, most notably among 11 to 16-year-olds. But around 4.8 per cent of secondary school pupils were still thought to have been carrying the virus in the last week, compared to roughly 7.5 per cent during half-term week.
Meanwhile, Government advisers today also revealed the R rate has fallen the second consecutive week. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) now estimates the rate stands at between 0.8 and 1, offering more proof that the outbreak is in decline.
One expert claimed the drop has been triggered ‘almost entirely by the wall of immunity, rather than behavioural changes or restrictions’, with the combination of the explosion in cases triggered by schools going back and the country’s vaccination drive credited for the drop.
Separate data published yesterday confirmed the trend. The UK’s largest symptom-tracking study revealed cases fell by almost a fifth in the biggest weekly drop since the summer.
But Department for Health testing statistics yesterday showed Covid cases increased 14 per cent on the previous week, marking the first rise in 10 days. But hospitalisations and deaths both fell week-on-week.
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