‘No sense of momentum’: Poll finds drop in support for Australia becoming a republic

Support for Australia becoming a republic has slipped, with only a third of Australians in favour according to a new Ipsos poll.

The online poll, conducted for The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and Nine News, surveyed 1222 people nationally and found 40 per cent were opposed to a republic, which would see the British monarchy replaced with our own head of state.

Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke of Edinburgh at Windsor Castle in November. A new poll has found support for the idea of Australia becoming a republic has slipped.Credit:Getty Images

One quarter said they didn’t know, which is the highest level of undecided responses on the issue recorded by successive Ipsos and Nielsen polls.

The polls show support for a republic has steadily ebbed since a peak in December 1999 – when 57 per cent of Australians were in favour – immediately after the failed 1999 republic referendum.

The latest Ipsos poll found support for Australia becoming a republic was lowest among those in the 18-24 year old group, with only 26 per cent in favour compared to 34 per cent in all other age groups.

Greens and Labor voters were more likely to support a republic (46 per cent and 41 per cent respectively) compared to 27 per cent of Coalition voters.

Among those who support a republic, 62 per cent think it should happen as soon as possible and 31 per cent think we should wait until the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign.

Ipsos director Jessica Elgood said 34 per cent support for republic was the lowest recorded by Ipsos and Nielsen polls since 1979.

She said she was surprised support was so low, but the country had been preoccupied with other issues, including bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic.

“There’s no sense of momentum around the move to Australia becoming a republic at the moment,” Ms Elgood said.

“Clearly at the turn of the century, with the referendum, there was so much more attention to the public debate.”

Ms Elgood also suggested the monarchy was not on the nose at the moment, with the furore surrounding Prince Andrew’s connection to disgraced late financier Jeffrey Epstein “receding into the rear mirror to a certain extent”.

And she said former US president Donald Trump had not made a presidential system a particularly appealing prospect for most of Australia.

“So, yes it did surprise me it was that low, but equally I think there’s a lot of supporting factors that explain why it’s getting worse,” Ms Elgood said.

Australian Republic Movement chair Peter FitzSimons said the Ipsos poll was an outlier, pointing to a YouGov poll in July last year that found 62 per cent of Australians want Australia’s head of state to be an Australian.

“I don’t accept that poll … we have been getting phenomenally strong support,” Mr FitzSimons said.

Mr FitzSimons said the Australian Republican Movement’s membership had increased by 19 per cent in the last six months. This was in part as a result of the release of the palace letters, which showed former governor-general Sir John Kerr did not tell the Queen he planned to dismiss Gough Whitlam but conferred with the Queen’s private secretary about his power to do so.

“The other factor is that we’ve been very active in things like social media, we are getting far more professional,” Mr FitzSimons said.

He said the movement had been relatively quiet last year because the only subjects in town were COVID-19, lockdown and vaccinations.

“It was not the time to talk about our grand plans, but this year will be a lot noisier,” Mr FitzSimons said.

The Australian Monarchist League said it was no surprise to see that support for a republic in Australia has declined, especially over the past 12 months.

“The ill-considered push for a republic in Australia has completely lost its momentum due to the growing popularity of the royal family, especially amongst young people and new Australians,” said media spokesperson Jeremy Mann.

“It is evident that the majority of Australians are more than content with keeping with our current system of constitutional monarchy, which has provided stability and accountability since the foundation of our great nation.“

An Essential poll in 2019 found support for Australia becoming a republic was 43 per cent, down 5 percentage points from its poll in 2018.

A Newspoll in 2018 found 50 per cent of Australians supported a republic, with 41 per cent wanting to retain a constitutional monarchy and 9 per cent uncommitted.

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