When Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the respective presidents of Russia and China, last met on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, they cemented their partnership by signing a stridently anti-West statement declaring their friendship had “no limits”. It was a geopolitical power-play by the world’s two most powerful authoritarian leaders that many believed would give rise to a new Cold War.
At the time, Putin’s reputation as a master political tactician was unblemished and Xi’s authority, at least within China, had been burnished by his firm hand on the pandemic, while the West was being ravaged by the Omicron COVID-19 variant.
What a difference a few months make.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping last met in Beijing in early February.Credit:AP
Three weeks after the pair met, Putin invaded Ukraine. It has proved to be a brutal, deadly folly. After initially attempting to force the whole nation to surrender, Putin was forced to reduce his ambitions, and his failing military is now being forced back out of hard-won territory. Even some nationalistic Russian commentators are beginning to waver, and the country’s economy is feeling the pinch of isolation and sanctions from the West.
Xi has offered tentative support for the invasion, describing it as legitimate. Meanwhile, he has also faced his own troubles at home. China is now struggling to shake off the pandemic, with its economy being battered by continuous lockdowns as it maintains its COVID-zero stance. Questions have been raised over the handling of a meltdown in its property market after one of its biggest property developers faced insolvency.
After America’s haphazard withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, there was a perception that the West was in retreat. Then came the war in Ukraine which, rather than splintering the relationship between Europe and America, has served as a cause for the West to rally around. They have common ground in defending democracy and national sovereignty against authoritarianism.
It is significant that the expected meeting of Putin and Xi is part of the Chinese leader’s first trip abroad since the outbreak of the pandemic. He will make a state visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and then attend a summit that includes Russia, India, Pakistan and four Central Asian countries.
Putin will be well aware that he needs Xi’s support a great deal more than Xi needs his. The world will be watching keenly to see whether Xi offers to strengthen Beijing’s strategic partnership with Moscow by offering Putin more vocal backing for his Ukraine invasion and the economic ties between the two countries. Gas and oil sales from Russia to China are already keeping the Russian economy afloat, albeit at heavily discounted prices.
The challenge for Xi is that China’s economy still relies heavily on the West. The more he offers backing for Putin, the further he will chill relations with Europe and America, endangering his global credibility and, perhaps, his country’s access to world markets. For that reason, most observers believe that while Xi will continue to trade with Putin and offer some diplomatic cover for the war in Ukraine, he will also comply with requests from the West not to materially back the invasion.
That balancing act was evident when Xi’s second-highest-ranking deputy, Li Zhanshu, met Putin in Russia recently. According to reports, Chinese state media emphasised the two countries’ admiration for each other, but steered clear of overt advocacy for Putin’s actions in Ukraine, even as Russian state media claimed Beijing backed the invasion.
This is realpolitik: a world in which Putin and Xi are motivated not by principle but by whatever enhances their own authority. All countries engage in this, of course, but when these two autocrats meet, the diplomatic dance of self-interest will be on full display.
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