JASON GROVES: Has Rishi Sunak brought Boris Johnson to heel over national insurance rise… or is the Downing St dogfight set to continue?
Rishi Sunak was growing increasingly alarmed last week at Boris Johnson’s public wobble over whether to press ahead with the controversial increase in national insurance.
Tory MPs, galvanised by the Daily Mail’s Spike the Hike campaign, were piling pressure on the Prime Minister to reopen what was a done deal to break the party’s manifesto pledge on tax and pour billions more into health and social care.
And Mr Johnson’s resolve appeared to be crumbling. In one interview last week, the PM refused eight times to say whether the tax rise was going ahead. Tory MPs telling Mr Johnson that ditching the tax would help him stay in office said he was ‘receptive’ to the idea.
The Chancellor planned to tackle the PM directly over the issue at a summit on the cost of living. But with Mr Johnson tearing up his diary to hold crisis talks with mutinous MPs over the Partygate row, the summit kept being delayed.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak was seen walking his dog with his wife Akshata Murthy near Downing Street in Westminster on Sunday after defending the National Insurance increase
Privately, some Cabinet ministers were willing the rebels on.
‘I hate it,’ said one. ‘I don’t think you’ll find many people lifting a finger to save it if we go down that route.’
In the Treasury, alarm bells were getting louder by the day.
A source acknowledged it was ultimately ‘up to the PM’, but warned that if the tax hike was delayed, it would never be introduced, adding: ‘Then all you’re left with is an unfunded £12 billion spending commitment.’
On Friday, Mr Sunak got his chance to stage an intervention. Treasury sources dismissed suggestions that he threatened to resign.
But in a one-to-one meeting with the PM, he did not mince his words on the political and economic consequences of dropping a plan that was agreed in September after months of negotiations.
The Chancellor said public spending would have to be cut, or other taxes raised, if the hike was spiked. He also said that, without a long-term income stream in place, the PM would struggle to credibly claim he had met his pledge to ‘fix’ social care.
The truce looks an uneasy one. In their article in The Sunday Times, the two men claim to be ‘tax-cutting Conservatives’ – while backing a huge tax rise. Mr Sunak has succeeded in jolting the PM back into line.
But history suggests that if Mr Johnson finds himself in a tight political spot in the coming days and weeks, the Chancellor may find the battle is not over.
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