A La Nina event is set to smash Australia’s east coast this summer, dampening holidaymakers’ plans for the third year in a row.
The Bureau of Meteorology made the announcement on Tuesday and said recent cooling in the central tropical Pacific and model outlooks indicated that cooler-than-average ocean temperatures would be sustained until the end of the year.
The majority of models predict an easing of the La Nina early next year, which suggests a relatively short-lived event.
A La Nina has been declared for this summer, making it the third year the climate driver will smash the state.Credit:Wolter Peeters
The wet weather will linger throughout spring with the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode compounding the wet weather across the country. This year has already been the fifth wettest on record, but it’s likely we’ll exceed previous records in the coming months.
This is the first time on record that Australia has experienced three consecutive La Nina events coinciding with back-to-back negative IOD events. Australia has experienced 20 La Nina events since 1900 and 12 have coincided with flooding in eastern states. The average rainfall from December to March in La Nina years is 20 per cent higher than the long-term average.
This is the second year in a row of a negative IOD, which refers to the patterns of sea surface temperature. While positive dipoles are associated with dry weather, negative dipoles can bring heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Australia.
The NSW SES said it is particularly concerned for the Hawkesbury, Nepean and Georges rivers, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Central Coast and Shoalhaven catchment. The agency is preparing its units for future flooding events.
The agency has just experienced its biggest year on record. Between June 1 and August 3 this year, NSW SES members responded to 13,390 weather-related requests for assistance across NSW.
An SES spokesperson for the agency said the weather had been relentless and the threat was unlikely to ease any time soon.
”Our NSW SES volunteers are always prepared and ready to assist their local communities. But we ask people also do their bit to help,” the spokesperson said.
“Simple things like preparing an emergency evacuation kit can be incredibly helpful in the event you need to evacuate your home. It’s also crucial to have a plan regarding where to go and how to get there in case you need to evacuate your home. This plan should also include your animals and please also check on your neighbours.”
While La Nina causes warmer than average sea temperatures off Australia’s coast which drive storms, it cools down ocean temperatures in the northern hemisphere, which creates drier onshore weather. The west coast of the US is experiencing its longest dry spell in 1200 years, while cities across the country’s west are grappling with how they manage dwindling water supplies.
In California, the statewide snowpack was just 38 per cent of the average as officials grow more concerned for the coming wildfire season.
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