The Great Barrier Reef is one of Australia’s most popular tourist destinations for international visitors – according to the region’s tourism boss, Tropical North Queensland attracts more overseas tourists than Tasmania, South Australia and the Northern Territory combined.
But since the international border reopened earlier this year, those numbers are about a quarter of what they were before the pandemic.
Domestic tourists flocked to Tropical North Queensland but international tourists are taking longer to return.
“At the moment, on the ground when we’d normally have about 25000 international visitors staying about five to seven days, we’re less than 500 internationals on the ground,” Tourism Tropical North Queensland chief executive Mark Olsen said.
International tourism will not bounce back to pre-pandemic levels until 2025, according to the latest annual tourism forecast.
However, the Australian Trade and Investment Commission report found that domestic travel has already outstripped 2019 highs as the cost of overseas travel has kept Australians onshore.
That domestic travel market is forecast to keep growing next year as people draw down on savings and leave they built up in the first two years of the pandemic, before demand levels off in 2024.
The border reopened for tourists in February, but fewer than 3500 visitors travelled to Australia this year, and the commission forecasts that will pick up to about 6200 in 2023. By 2025 the commission predicts overseas arrivals will surpass the 2019 levels, and by 2027 expects those numbers to reach 11 million.
Olsen said the sheer expense of international travel and lack of flights has kept overseas visitor numbers muted this year, and there was a big question of when the Chinese tourist market would pick up again.
“China will be the one to watch in 2023. I think we’ll all be watching with bated breath,” he said.
The surge in domestic tourism had provided some consolation to the Queensland industry this year, he said.
“They’ve rekindled their love of Cairns and the Great Barrier Reef, and that’s really comforting to us,” he said.
“We’re cautiously optimistic that domestic [visitors] will continue to choose Cairns and the Great Barrier Reef through ’23 and ’24, and then we’ve got to see the international comeback.”
While huge numbers of domestic travellers have visited the tropical north of the country, Olsen said many operators rely heavily on the international tourist market.
“For some businesses, particularly some big reef operators, they were 80 per cent international and 20 per cent domestic,” he said.
In inflation-adjusted terms, international tourists spent $13.5 billion this year, compared to $34.5 billion before the pandemic. That spending is forecast to rise back to pre-pandemic levels by 2025.
The amount spent on domestic trips has already overtaken 2019 figures, and the number of overnight stays is near pre-pandemic levels.
Tourism and Trade Minister Don Farrell said tourism was a major employer and export earner for the country and the government was committed to supporting the industry.
“I have been delighted to see Australians getting out and about around our country this year, and I look forward to our tourism and travel businesses welcoming more international visitors in coming years,” he said.
International visitor numbers hit a peak of nearly 9.5 million in 2019. When COVID hit in early 2020, and the international border shut soon after, those numbers dwindled to just 246 arrivals in 2021.
The forecasts come after a dire period for Australian tourism. The near two-year closure of the international border meant international travel was non-existent, while state border closures hampered interstate holidays.
That cost Australia $153.6 billion in lost tourism expenditure from March 2020 to June this year, the report found, including $84.8 billion lost from international travel, $50.5 from overnight domestic holidays and $18.3 billion from day trips.
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