GOP is confident voters’ disgust at soaring crime and apathy over end of Roe v. Wade can help them flip THIRTEEN House seats in deep blue states including California, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island

  • Democrats currently hold a slim 220-212 majority in the House, with three seats left vacant, meaning flipping 13 seats would guarantee a Republican majority 
  • The GOP has confidence that they can create a red wave in November because of crime in blue states 
  • Republican insiders also believe that abortion won’t be a motivating factor for enough voters to keep the House blue 
  • President Joe Biden has spending important time stumping for candidates in Oregon and California just weeks ahead of the election 
  • Republicans are now spending $25million in ad buys in those states, as well as districts in New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut to try and beat the Dems 

Republicans believe there may be up to 13 House seats in traditionally blue districts that they can flip to take control in November, including a popular progressive, the head of the Dems’ biggest fundraising arm and a Rhode Island district Joe Biden won by 13 points.

Democrats currently hold a slim 220-212 majority in the House, with three seats left vacant, meaning flipping 13 seats would guarantee a Republican majority in 2023.

The GOP has confidence they can create a red wave in November because of high crime in blue states and Republican insiders’ belief that abortion won’t be a motivating factor for enough voters to keep the House blue, according to Axios. 

With President Joe Biden spending important time stumping for candidates in Oregon and California just weeks ahead of the election, Democrats are forced to play defense where they’re used to feeling safe. 

Republicans are now spending $25million in ad buys in those states, as well as districts in New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut to try and beat the Democrats. 

Republicans believe there may be as many as 13 House seats in traditionally blue districts that they can flip to take control of the lower chamber in the November midterms

President Joe Biden spent important time stumping for candidates in Oregon and California just weeks ahead of the election, Democrats are forced to play defense where they’re used to feeling safe

Perhaps the highest-profile seat Republicans are trying to gain is in California’s 47th District, held by progressive firebrand Katie Porter.

It is one of eight districts where the GOP has dropped over $23million in ad spending to try and elect Porter’s opponent Scott Baugh, a former California State Assemblymen. 

The GOP is targeting three other districts in California: The 13th, where John Duarte is trying to beat Adam Gray in a newly-drawn district; the 49th, a district Biden won by just four points where second-term rep Mike Levin is trying to hold Brian Maryott; and the 26th, where Julia Brownley hopes to hold off Matt Jacobs in a district she won by 20 points in 2020. 

Republicans hope to make even bigger gains in Oregon, where a three-way race has given them hope of taking the governor’s mansion for the first time since 1987.  

The party is putting major spending on two House seats: The 4th District, where Peter DiFazio’s retirement has Val Hoyle trying to hold off the 2020 loser, Alek Skarlatos, in a district Biden won by four points; and the 6th District, which Biden won by 13 points but sees a close race after redistricting as Andrea Salinas tries to defeat challenger Mike Erickson. 

In New York, spending is being directed toward two districts, most importantly the 17th, where DCCC Chairman Sean Maloney won a controversial primary against an AOC-backed challenger and is now facing off in a redrawn seat with Michael Lawler. Outside groups have reportedly spent over $2million to try and unseat Maloney, the first gay person elected to Congress in New York history. 


Perhaps the highest-profile seat Republicans are trying to gain is in California’s 47th District, held by progressive firebrand Katie Porter (pictured left). It’s one of eight districts where the GOP has dropped over $23million in ad spending to try and elect Porter’s opponent Scott Baugh (pictured right), a former California State Assemblyman


The GOP is targeting three other districts in California, including the 13th, where John Duarte (pictured right) is trying to beat Adam Gray (pictured left) in a newly-drawn district


In the 49th, a district Biden won by just four points, second-term rep Mike Levin (pictured left) is trying to hold Brian Maryott (pictured right)


Rep. Julia Brownley (pictured left) hopes to hold off Matt Jacobs (pictured right) in the 26th District, which she won by 20 points in 2020


In Oregon’s 4th District, where Peter DiFazio’s is retiring, Val Hoyle (pictured left) is trying to hold off the 2020 loser, Alek Skarlatos (pictured right), in a district Biden won by just four points

They’re also attempting to elect Anthony D’Esposito to flip a seat previously held by Kathleen Rice, which her endorsed successor Laura Gillen trying to hang on. 

Other blue districts the GOP is pumping cash in are Connecticut’s 5th, where Jahana Hayes tries to win a third term against George Logan; Georgia’s 2nd, where Sanford Bishop Jr., the longest-serving Congressman from the Peach State having held his seat since 1993, faces off against Chris West.

There’s also New Mexico’s 3rd, where Teresa Leger Fernandez tries to stop Alexis Martinez Johnson from flipping a seat where Fernandez beat Martinez by 17 points in 2020; and Arizona’s 4th, where Greg Stanton is trying save his seat for a third term against Kelly Cooper. 

The canary in the coal mine for the GOP may be in Rhode Island’s 2nd District. Biden took the district by 14 points in 2020, but polls show Alan Fung leading Seth Magaziner for the open spot being vacated by Democrat James Langevin.  

GOP ads have continuously gone after the Dems over crime, bail reform, supposed defunding of the police and immigration.  


The 6th District, which Biden won by 13 points, sees a close race after redistricting as Andrea Salinas (pictured left) tries to defeat Mike Erickson (pictured right) 


In New York, spending is being directed toward two districts, most importantly the 17th, where DCCC Chairman Rep. Sean Maloney (pictured left) won a controversial primary against an AOC-backed challenger and is now facing off in a redrawn seat with Michael Lawler (pictured right)


Republicans are also attempting to elect Anthony D’Esposito (pictured right) to flip a seat previously held by Kathleen Rice, which her endorsed successor Laura Gillen (pictured left) trying to hang on.


Other blue districts the GOP is pumping cash in are Connecticut’s 5th, where Rep. Jahana Hayes (pictured left) tries to win a third term against George Logan (pictured right)

One other factor in many of these states is they don’t feature competitive Senate races but do feature gubernatorial races with Republican momentum, like in Oregon and New York, where Kathy Hochul is trying to hang on to beat Representative Lee Zeldin. 

A Republican strategist says that the party’s candidates are actually doing better in blue states than in swing states, where Democrats are focusing more of their engagement.   

A litany of projections suggest Republicans are poised to gain ground in November – though that lead has shrunk in recent weeks amid continued fallout from the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and Biden’s fiery new approach of attacking parts of the GOP as ‘extremists.’

While the Senate is more of a toss-up, the GOP is still expected to retake the House of Representatives with a plethora of candidates benefitting from newly-redrawn Congressional maps.

Democrats currently control both the House and Senate by slim margins, with only Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote giving them an advantage in a completely split upper chamber. 


Another key attempt to flip is Georgia’s 2nd, where Rep. Sanford Bishop Jr. (pictured left), the longest-serving Congressman from the Peach State having held his seat since 1993, faces off against Chris West (pictured right)


In New Mexico’s 3rd, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (pictured left) is trying to stop Alexis Martinez Johnson (pictured right) from flipping a seat where Fernandez beat Martinez by 17 points in 2020


In Arizona’s 4th, Greg Stanton is trying save his seat for a third term against Kelly Cooper


The canary in the coal mine for the GOP may be in Rhode Island’s 2nd District. Biden took the district by 14 points in 2020, but polls show Alan Fung (pictured right) leading Seth Magaziner (pictured left) for the open spot being vacated by Democrat James Langevin

In a bid to energize their base, House Republican leaders unveiled a revamped national platform called their ‘Commitment to America.’ 

It’s molded after Newt Gingrich’s 1994 ‘Contract With America,’ which was rolled out just before Republicans swept Congress in the first midterm election of Bill Clinton’s presidency. 

But Democrats, for their part, have sought to tie their Republican opponents to anti-abortion extremism. In more moderate districts, they’re attempting to link their rivals to Donald Trump in a bid to discredit them with Independent voters.

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