The long grass across NSW is worrying to RFS Cowra group captain Guy Noble. He’s been a firefighter for 45 years, but this is one of the worst grass loads the state has had in 20 years.
“There has been so much rain. I don’t know if it has stopped yet, but in a way I am hoping it doesn’t and there is a bit more moisture to come. Otherwise, this is going to be a worrying year,” he said.
NSW RFS Cowra group captain Guy Noble said the grass loads in the Central West are concerning after three years of heavy rain. Credit:Nikki Short
The wet weather cycle that deluged the east coast is breaking down but, by next summer, there’s a 50-50 chance the east coast will get either balmy weather or the dreaded dry El Nino cycle that brings heat, drought and bushfires.
El Nino brings colder water to the east coast of Australia, which means lower evaporation, less cloud cover and drier conditions – which significantly increases the risk of drought, heatwaves and bushfires.
What’s the difference between a grass and a bushfire?
What makes grass fires so dangerous is how quickly they can spread – at times travelling more than 25km/h.
“You can’t outrun a grass fire,” NSW RFS Commissioner Rob Rogers said. “One difference to bushfires is that they are not something that tends to go for weeks; once the heat of the day disappears and the wind drops, grass fires tend to calm down, whereas bushfires keep burning.”
Grass fires start from a variety of similar causes to bushfires, such as lightning or someone throwing a cigarette out of a window, but agricultural practices – including welding fences or sparks from machinery – can also ignite a blaze.
Firefighters work on a grass fire in Mill Park, Victoria, in 2019. Credit:Justin McManus
What’s in store this year
Authorities are turning their attention to increasing fire risks this year. Above-normal fire potential is expected in parts of Western Australia, southern Queensland and inland NSW because of increased fuel loads, a report by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council found.
Meanwhile, other parts of NSW, Victoria and the ACT face below-normal fire potential because of the amount of moisture in the landscape, continued wet outlook and reduced fuel loads after the 2019-20 bushfires.
The Sydney Morning Herald’s chief photographer Nick Moir, who has spent years documenting natural disasters, said the current weather systems aren’t producing strong enough westerly winds.
The seasonal bushfire outlook shows parts of inland NSW face above-average fire danger risk.Credit:AFAC
“In 2016, we had a lot of grass growth, but it wasn’t until 2017 that we started seeing grass fires because the winds weren’t there,” Moir said. “Not all the ingredients are there yet. The fuel is there, the temperatures but the dryness and the winds aren’t.”
For emergency services, the past three years have seen floods rather than fires during the warming months. Unfortunately, this has delayed fire mitigation efforts.
In NSW, the RFS has conducted hazard reduction burns on only 8764 hectares since July. The agency’s target for this financial year is 318,891 hectares. In 2021-22, the agency treated 40,123 hectares, while in 2020-21 about 176,499 hectares were treated
The heavy rain has fuelled strong grass growth across much of western NSW. Rogers said the state was facing its most significant grass fire threat in more than 20 years, particularly for western parts of NSW. Rogers said while the amount of water in the tableland would elevate grass fire risk for years to come, areas that had burnt during the 2019-20 bushfire season were regenerating faster than expected.
According to the fuel accumulation curve, a model used by fire authorities, the affected landscape should take eight to nine years before it became a concern. But heavy rains over the past three years mean these areas could burn again in five years. Maps from the NSW RFS show heavy grass fuel loads over huge parts of the state, stretching from western NSW to many coastal areas.
NSW RFS maps show big grass fuel loads in the west.Credit:NSW RFS
In December last year, the state had 850 grass fires. Since the start of this year, NSW has had 90.
Rogers said the bushfire threat would increase towards March. He added the best thing people could do to prepare for the increased risk was to keep their lawns as short as possible, clean out gutters, make sure there are limited combustible items around the house and have an evacuation plan.
Risk in Victoria
For Victorians, the risk of grass fires remains normal, said Victoria’s Country Fire Authority deputy chief officer bushfire management Alen Slijepcevic.
Maps by the state fire agency show the amount of grassland curing – a measure of the amount of dead grassland in the landscape that has dried out or died – remains higher in the north of the state.
Map showing cured grass loads in Victoria.Credit:CFA
Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said that, despite wetter conditions this year, the agency, which conducts mitigation efforts on public land, had continued with its mitigation efforts.
“We’ve also increased our use of mowing, slashing and mulching and expanded our network of strategic fuel breaks to better protect against bushfires. These strips of land are in the highest priority locations – close to towns, water catchments and sensitive environments,” Hardman said.
“Although we don’t expect many long-running or large forest fires this summer, areas across the north and west of Victoria may see increasing fire potential from mid-summer, especially in areas of high grass growth.
Drier forests, woodlands and heathlands are also at risk of fires with the onset of hot and dry weather conditions.”
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